Zelensky May Face Tough Election Prospects, Polls Show

Since Russia invaded his country three years ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has experienced a military attack on his capital, an assassination plot, corruption scandals, political missteps and terrible failures in his military’s fight against Russia.

The Ukrainians had enough support to carry him through every time.

Now installed in the White House with Donald J. Trump, Mr. Zelensky faces a new challenge: building good relations with the country’s most critical ally and a president who is controversial and skeptical of military aid.

Mr Trump’s arrival coincides with Mr Zelensky’s local time. The soaring popularity he enjoyed at the start of the war – badly dented by an approval rating of around 90 percent. The latest polls show support dipping to around 50 percent, making him less popular than he is against potential rivals in post-truce elections with Russia.

A new challenge has emerged for Mr. Zelensky: the resurgence of political opposition in Ukraine, fueled by the prospect of a ceasefire and elections that could soon follow. Criticism of his opponents has also been directed at Mr. Trump and his aides, Mr. Zelensky.

Two of Mr. Zelensky’s opponents in the 2019 Ukrainian election, former President Petro O. Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, reached out to members of Mr. Trump’s team. Ms. Timoshenko traveled to Washington on Monday to attend some inaugural events.

Mr. Zelensky did not attend the ceremony. He said he would only travel to Washington if invited by Mr Trump.

“He believes in a one-man show, but it doesn’t work,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of parliament in the opposition European Solidarity Party, said of Mr. Zelenskiy’s role as the face of Ukrainian resistance after the Russian invasion in 2022. More pluralism would help the war effort, he said in an interview: “We are not Russia.”

Mr. Zelensky has led his people, and indeed nations, through the war through nightly videos and frequent trips abroad. But after that, he cut himself off from a circle of loyal aides who restricted access to opposition figures and said he ignored Mr. Goncharenko’s advice, usually ignoring their advice. He added how much active opposition there would be to the war effort at the moment.

To be sure, a vote in Ukraine is not planned — or even possible, say election experts — as war rages and the country is under martial law. Russia can disrupt any vote with missile volleys. Millions of Ukrainians, including soldiers, including refugees in Europe and people living under occupation, disenfranchisement. So, while Ukrainians are fighting for democracy, they are unable to do so.

Still, opposition figures did not see how Mr. Zelenskiy’s popularity in the war did not go away. Elections should be called after martial law is lifted within the framework of the constitution. Parliament was introduced first Martial law in February 2022after a full-scale Russian invasion and extended by periodic sounds.

By one measure, Mr. Zelensky still has the support of a majority of Ukrainians, a slim majority: 52 percent trust in the president in December, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

But with the vote more narrowly focused on a hypothetical presidential election, Mr. Zelensky followed his former commander in his army, Valery Zaluzhny, Who was removed by the president as part of a sweeping overhaul of the military command and is now Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain.

A poll, leading legal initiatives by the election organization, showed Mr. Zaluzhny winning the first round of the two-stage election with 24 percent of Mr. Zaluzhny. Mr. Zelensky, with 16 percent; The opposition figure, Mrs. Timoshenko, came in third place with 12 percent. Neither Mr. Zaluzhny nor Ms. Timoshenko announced their intention to flee.

Dwindling support has implications for Mr. Zelensky beyond politics: It could undermine his role as commander-in-chief in the war.

“It is difficult to explain how disasters can occur in a state of delegitimization and control,” Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, wrote in an analysis of approval ratings.

That hasn’t stopped Mr Trump and members of his entourage from taking swipes at Mr Zelensky. At a rally in September, for example, Mr. Trump called Mr. Zelensky “the biggest salesman in history” along with billions in military aid that his country defends.

Speaking to reporters on Monday after the inauguration, Mr. Trump offered a positive assessment of Mr. Zelensky’s solutions and one of his harshest assessments to date of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin “destroying Russia.” With war.

Mr. Zelensky and his aides rushed to part ways with Mr. Trump’s team. The President of Ukraine met with Mr. Trump in New York in September. President-elect JD Vance and incoming National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, then a congressman from Florida, met with Andriy Yermak, President-elect of Ukraine, on Capitol Hill in December.

Mr. Zelensky’s aides also looked in curry favor behind the scenes. Officials in Kiev discussed the possibility of meeting Melania Trump’s “Melania” book, “Melania” discussion.

It was not known whether any of the group reached out to an aide or associate of Ms. Trump. Zelensky described the discussion as little more than “brainstorming” by aides about building a good relationship with Mr. Trump.

On a visit to Washington in December, Mr. Poroshenko spoke with Mr. Waltz Select for National Security Adviser. Mr. Poroshenko had an exchange Facebook Post Trump promoted his ties to his team and included photos of himself with Mr. Waltz.

“I have prepared for the new American leadership to demonstrate leadership in dealing with Russian aggression and creating a just peace in Ukraine,” he said. “

A person present, Mr. Poroshenko, overstated the significance of the interaction with Mr. Waltz, which took place in a corridor where the two were present and attending an official meeting. Mr. Poroshenko has prepared any political goal during the war.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee in Ukraine’s parliament and a member of Mr Zelensky’s political party, said it was standard diplomacy for Mr Trump’s team to engage with the opposition party.

“Ukraine is a democratic society,” he said. “It’s nice to meet the opposition.”

However, he claimed that the opposition’s broadcast was “mainly about self-promotion and political PR.” Mr. Merezhko tried a different approach to Mr. Trump’s focus on war: last fall, he nominated Mr. Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Mr Merezhko said he did not believe Mr Trump had any deep-seated grudges against Mr Zelensky. According to him, the comment “the biggest seller” can be read as a bench.

“In Trump’s world, that’s a compliment,” he said.