Year in a word: Incumbent
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(adjective and noun) the current holder of an office or position
For more than a century, one of the most fundamental concepts in political science has been that incumbent advantage. You can call it electoral gravity, a force that pulls everything towards the person or party running the show. Being in power offers the advantages of strong name recognition, established fundraising networks, media relations and experience.
But it’s no longer clear that’s happening, and many things that used to provide a boost at the ballot box may now backfire in 2024, when more than half of the world’s population had the right to vote in elections, incumbents were removed from the US to the UK and beyond.
When the long-term trend in the democratic world was a broader definition of sustained economic growth and progress, having a record in power was a good thing. Absent a terrible economic shock or a blunder, parties could run successful campaigns focusing on tangible improvements achieved during their tenure.
In the conditions of stagnation, it is now the norm, this has been turned on its head. “Vote for us if you want four more years of housing and other things getting worse” is not an obvious vote winner.
Likewise, in an increasingly fragmented media landscape where upstart politicians can speak directly to voters, being well known to mainstream news organizations is no longer a big incentive. If Elon Musk has his wayeven a sitting president’s fundraising advantage may soon be a thing of the past.
If the trend continues, it bodes ill for the growing success of sensible centrists, measured rhetoric, and politics. pioneers, promising quick wins and radical reforms.
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