Xi has a plan for retaliating against Trump’s gamesmanship

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The writer is a professor at Georgetown University and a senior advisor to The Asia Group.He served on the staff of the US National Security Council from 2009 to 2015

If Donald Trump’s China policy is defined uncertainty and contradictionXi Jinping’s strategy is defined by clarity and determination. The Chinese president’s approach to the newly elected US president is not a secret. Since the election, Beijing has been quite clear about its views and possible responses.

Xi plans not only to respond, but also to take advantage of Trump’s actions. During Trump’s first presidency, Beijing tried to respond. It is determined not to repeat it. Xi is preparing well and has signaled as much.

Most Chinese analysts were not surprised by Trump’s election, attributing his return to a global wave of populism and nationalism. Beijing believes it now understands Trump’s gamesmanship and can manipulate his administration , that China in 2025 is different from 2017, and so is the US and the world.

Many Chinese argue that Xi is politically stronger and the economy more self-reliant, even amid recent challenges. Chinese analysts see the US economy as more fragile and American politics deeply divided US influence is waning across the Global South and Asia, while support for China’s vision is growing.

Xi has already signaled that he will treat his ties with Trump as purely business, albeit Don Corleone-style. He will not personally embrace Trump and will respond early and hard to create leverage. Beijing, in fact, rejected Trump’s invitation to attend Xi’s inauguration.

But Beijing has also signaled it wants dialogue and is open to a deal to avoid new tariffs, but the Chinese, who prefer to use back channels, are struggling to understand what Trump “really” wants the baseline assumption is that Washington and its allies will remain hostile to China for the foreseeable future, so Xi is open to negotiations because he wants to is to have some breathing room on the economic front so that China can gather its strength for long-term competition.

Beijing remains concerned that the Trump team will focus on deeper economic disengagement, regime change in China, and support for Taiwan independence, all as a means of containing and destabilizing China.Hence Xi’s four “red lines”; meeting with President Joe Biden in November in Peru with a clear message to the incoming administration.

Beijing’s planned responses to Trump fall into three baskets: retaliation, accommodation, and diversification.In recent years, Beijing has created a series of export controls, investment restrictions, and regulatory investigations that could hurt American companies , so will try to impose costs in ways that cause maximum pain for China not to fight back would indicate domestic weakness and only embolden Trump.

This has already started. In late 2024, Beijing blocked exports of key minerals used to make chips, clamped down on the U.S. drone supply chain, threatened to blacklist a high-end American apparel company and launched an antitrust investigation into Nvidia is its possibilities and creates future bargaining chips.

China’s second strategy is adjustment. From the fall of 2023, Beijing launched a flurry of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help businesses, and now consumers. This policy shift is having some positive, albeit uneven, effects were also drafted with a possible trade war in mind.

Beijing’s third strategy involves the expansion of economic ties. It is discussing unilaterally cutting tariffs on imports from non-US partners. During his trip to Peru, Xi unveiled a deep-water port that could transform China’s trade with Latin America, a major source of food, energy and minerals, for the first time in late 2024 he even participated in the meetings with the leaders of 10 large international economic organizations. His message was clear. China will be a leading force for global economic stability, prosperity and openness, and opposes all forms of protectionism.

A lot can go wrong. Beijing’s confidence suits Team Trump. Both sides believe they have the upper hand. The stage is set for a complex, destabilizing dynamic that leads to more pain is a cease-fire. And that’s only about economic issues, not about Taiwan, the South China Sea, or the modernization of nuclear forces. The Cold War is starting to look strange in comparison to seem