Why the US will lose against China
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Donald Trump “Liberation Day” Presumably “mutual tariffs” against the rest of the world – Probably, the proposals of eccentric trading policy have been made after the fire from the fire after the fire retreating from China to trade war. This can (or not) has been what was meant by the beginning. So can this war defeat against China? Indeed, the United States, as now after the second coming of Trump, hopes to succeed in competition with China. The answers are “no”. This is not because China is invincible, far from it. This is because the United States is throwing all the assets in its needs if its status in the world is maintained as huge as it is able to be.
“Commercial wars are good and easy to win”, Trump posted In 2018. As a general offer, this is false. Commercial wars hurt both sides. Can reach a transaction that both sides make better than before. It is more likely that any transactions will become better than before and the other is worse. The last deal, presumably what the hopes of Trump will arise. The United States will win. China will lose.
At the moment, the United States does not impose a rate of 145% of tariff for Chinese imports, while China sets 125% tariff on the United States. China has also restricted the export of “rare countries” To the USA. These are very high, it really is prohibitive, the barriers to trade. This looks like a “Mexican Stopping” that cannot win between two superpowers.
One is given to understand that the US program (if there is one) to “persuade” commercial partners to import heavy transactions from China (and possibly in other areas such as security, but also in other areas. Don’t this result is reliable.
One of the reasons is that China also has powerful cards. Many significant powers are already doing their trade with China than with the United States. These include Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. Yes, the United States is a more important export market than China is a complaining about very significant countries due to trade deficits. But China is a significant market for many. Moreover, China is a major source of imports, many of which cannot be easily replaced. Import is eventually the purpose of the trade.
First of all, the United States has become unreliable. “Transaction” US is always looking for a better deal. No healthy country should be played against such a partner, especially China. Trump’s treatment was the typical moment of Canada. The Canadians have answered, reviewing the liberals. Trump will learn from it. Can the leopard change his spots? This is him. He is also a man that US voters have chosen twice. Moreover, breaking it with China would be risky. China will not forget and hardly forgive.
No less important, China believes that its people can have economic pain better than Americans. Moreover, the trading war is mainly a demand for demand, while for the United States is mainly a shock of supply. Easier to replace lost claim than sales.
In addition, the United States will not receive the transactions that are obviously looking for, and the victory over China hopes. My assumption is that since it becomes obvious to the White House, Trump is at least partially retreating from his trading wars, announcing the same, but in movement.
However, this does not change the reality that the United States really competes with China for global influence. Unfortunately the US that many want to do well is not this USA
Moreover, Trump’s US will not do well. Its population is a quarter of China. Its economy is very similar in size, as it is much more effective. Its impact, cultural, intellectual and political, are still bigger than China, as its ideals and ideas are more attractive. The United States was able to create powerful alliances with supporters that strengthen this impact. Summing up, it was inherited and so was blessed with huge assets.
Now consider what is happening in Trump mode. The rule of law is a tool to turn into revenge; Dismantling of the US government. contempt for the laws that are the basis of a legitimate government; Scientific research and Independence of large US universities; Wars on reliable statistics. enemies over immigrants (And not only illegal), although they have been foundations for success in all generations. a number An open rejection of medical science and climate science; Explicit rejection of the most industrial ideas of trading economics. Equivalence or (more than that) Preference for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s tyranny, Volodimir ZelenskyDemocratic Ukrainian leader; and open contempt for the mass of alliance and cooperation institutions on which the world’s world order is resting. All this is in the hands of the political movement, which hugs the January 2021 rebellion of 2021.
Yes, the global economic order needed improvement. The Chinese job is overwhelming to move to the leading growth of consumption. It is also clear that many reforms are needed inside the United States. However, now it is not a reform, but the destruction of US success funds, at home and abroad. It will be difficult to reverse the damage. It will be impossible for people to forget who and what has become a reason.
Eght The United States, who is trying to replace the rule of law and the Constitution with corrupt sister’s capitalism, will not exceed ChinaA number of net transactions will not receive the whole heartfelt support of its allies. The world needs us, which competes and cooperates with China. This US, alas, will not be able to do well.
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