Why is Honduras threatening to expel US soldiers? | Military news

Honduras has threatened to withdraw US troops in response to new President Donald Trump’s implementation plans. mass deportations Number of refugees and asylum seekers entering the United States from Central America.

Trump’s plan could affect hundreds of thousands of people from Honduras, home to a significant US military base.

Here’s what’s at the heart of the dispute between the world’s biggest superpower and its smallest neighbor, why it matters, and what it means for relations between the countries.

What did Honduras say about US soldiers?

In his New Year’s message, Honduran President Xiomara Castro threatened to review the country’s military cooperation with the United States if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.

Castro stated that U.S. military facilities in Honduras, particularly the Soto Cano Air Base, would “lose all reason to exist” if these deportations took place. But he also took the opportunity to more broadly criticize the long-standing US military presence on Honduran soil.

“In the face of the hostile attitude towards the mass expulsion of our brothers, we will have to consider a change in our policy of cooperation with the United States, especially in the military field, where they have kept their military bases without paying a penny for decades. In this case, we will lose all reasons to exist in Honduras,” he said.

How important are US military bases in Honduras?

While the U.S. military presence in Honduras is focused on Soto Cano Air Base, it is part of a broader operation in Central America that includes smaller bases in El Salvador.

Established in the 1980s to combat perceived communist threats in the region, Soto Cano is home to more than 1,000 US military and civilian personnel. It is also one of the few places other than Guantanamo between the United States and Colombia capable of landing large aircraft.

The base serves as a key launching point for rapid deployment of US forces to the region, including disaster relief and aid management and counter-narcotics operations.

Its location provides proximity to drug-trafficking corridors in Central and South America, making it an important stage for surveillance and interdiction.

However, some experts have criticized Washington’s justification of its military presence in Soto Cano after Washington backed the government of Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was extradited to the United States in 2022 for drug crimes and money laundering.

Hernandez was president of Honduras twice and is serving a 45-year prison sentence in New York from June 2024.

“It is hypocritical to say that the US is using him (Soto Cano) to fight the drug trade when the US is supporting, legalizing and pouring millions of dollars into the Honduran president and his corrupt police and military,” said Dana Frank, professor emerita. This was reported by Al Jazeera, the Department of History at the University of California, Santa Cruz.

At the same time, although the US is not paying Honduras for the base, Soto Cano is also benefiting the Central American people.

“The U.S. military presence in Honduras is generally popular, contributes economically, and provides specific benefits to Honduras in terms of infrastructure development, intelligence, and emergency assistance during extreme weather events that often affect Honduras,” said Eric Olson, a global researcher at the Wilson Center.

How significant is the threat and why is Honduras doing it?

Experts say that the threat from Honduras is a significant moment in Central American geopolitics.

“I think this is a really interesting and powerful turning point in the role of the United States recognizing that it will dominate the Western Hemisphere, particularly Central America,” Frank said.

Frank said the U.S. military may be particularly inclined to keep Soto Caño amid competition from China, which has no military presence in Central America.

According to analysts, Honduras would not want to cut ties with the United States. The country relies on remittances from its citizens abroad: in 2022, 27 percent of its gross domestic product was generated by remittances. And its largest diaspora is in the United States, where about 5 percent of the Honduran population — more than 500,000 people — live, according to Pew. Research Center estimates.

Hondurans play a key role in the US economy, particularly in labor-intensive sectors. In March 2024, one of the six construction workers killed in the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore was a Honduran citizen, and the others were immigrants from Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

The same dynamic makes it difficult for Honduras to remain silent in the face of threats of mass deportation. Tony Garcia, the country’s deputy foreign minister, said that as many as 250,000 Hondurans are expected to be expelled from the United States in 2025, a move the Central American nation is not equipped to take all at once.

Without remittances from its citizens in the United States, the Honduran economy could take a big hit.

How long will Honduras last?

Some analysts view the threat as a negotiating tactic rather than an immediate policy change, and say there is no opportunity to meaningfully influence U.S. policy in Honduras.

“In the end, I feel like Honduras is threatening with a very weak hand,” Olson told Al Jazeera.

Frank described the move as a “pre-emptive strike” against Trump and an important affirmation of the sovereignty of Honduras and Central America.

Trump has promised to quickly deport undocumented immigrants, but his team has offered no concrete plan, leaving Latin American governments uncertain as they try to prepare.

He also promised to slap 25 percent tariff If they don’t stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the US, to Mexico and Canada.

How might the US respond, and what does this mean for bilateral relations?

Olson told Al Jazeera that the threat could have far-reaching implications for US-Honduras relations, particularly for the Republican-led administration. According to him, the Honduran government is “playing with fire”.

“I can’t imagine that President Trump will take kindly to threats to the US military by a government that Republicans are already eager to categorize with Nicaragua and Venezuela,” he said, predicting a “turn for the worse” in bilateral relations. ” regardless of the outcome regarding Soto Cano.

For the United States, Olson said the potential disruption of military ties with Honduras is likely to be disappointing, but not critical to its military operations.

To be sure, Soto Cano played a key role in the US-backed Contra War against Nicaragua in the 1980s and supported operations in El Salvador.

“It has a long and bad history,” Frank said, including its use during the 2009 military coup in Honduras, when President Manuel Zelaya’s plane was refueled there.

But Olson suggested that Soto Cano Air Base no longer has the strategic importance it had in the 1980s and 1990s.

“The U.S. military has been considering pulling out of Soto Cano for some time,” Olson said, adding that missions such as counternarcotics and emergency response could be performed elsewhere.

Frank also warned that Republicans, including Marco Rubio, are likely to align President Castro’s government with anti-US governments like Venezuela and Nicaragua.

“It’s likely to become a broader anti-communist Cold War framework,” he said.