Why are Somaliland people affected by Donald Trump?

The minister’s remarks are in a similar vein, but more measured, than Somalia’s reaction to the recognition agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia in exchange for access to the sea.

I received calls late at night from Somalis who said they couldn’t sleep because of the controversial proposal.

Aden Ibrahim Aw Hirsi, Somalia’s then environment minister, told me at the time: “You always talk about ‘political bombs’ in your reports.

“People here are talking about a political earthquake. This is more serious. This is a tsunami.”

After that, Turkey mediated to end the conflict but Somalia’s recent signing of a $600,000 (£492,000)-a-year contract with BGR Group, Washington’s top lobbying firm, suggests he is worried about relations with the incoming Trump administration.

USA last month He abstained from voting on the UN Security Council resolution, external To finance the latest incarnation of the African Union intervention force in Somalia.

A key architect of Republican African thought, especially when it comes to Somalia, is Joshua Meservey, who recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the right-leaning Hudson Institute.

“From the point of view of the United States, the issue of Somaliland is very attractive,” he said. “I think the issue of recognition will certainly be discussed, although the leading north star is practically the best for the US national interest.”

Senior African officials under Trump, including former assistant secretary of state for African affairs Tibor Nagy and African envoy Peter Pham, are strong supporters of Somaliland independence.

Like many American Republicans, Somalia’s foreign minister, Abdirahman Dahir Adan, sees the relationship in operational terms.

“If the deal is good for us, we will buy it. If the US wants a military base here, we will give it to them.”

Those in favor of recognition argue that Somaliland lies at the intersection of US economic, military and strategic interests.

Mr Meservey adds that the territory should be “rewarded” for sticking to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having a small government.

Its long coastline stretches along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels may have replaced Somali pirates as the region’s main traffic disruptor, but the attacks remain a major threat to global trade and are pushing the region closer to war in the Middle East.

The struggle for foreign bases on the coast of the Horn of Africa worries the United States, which in 2002 established the largest military facility on the continent in Djibouti.

Russia’s eye on Port Sudan; The United Arab Emirates (UAE) used Eritrea’s Assab to fight the Houthis, and Djibouti is blockaded by foreign forces, including the Chinese, who not only have a well-located military facility but also control a huge port.

Turkey’s largest foreign base is located south of Mogadishu along Somalia’s coastline.

Dealing with a rising China is Trump’s top priority.

The US has accused the Chinese of interfering with its operations in Djibouti by shooting lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots and wants to relocate.

It also wants to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has taken over much of Africa.

The Red Sea port of Berbera has a lot to offer as an alternative if you see it as part of Somaliland or Somalia.

China is not there; indeed, Taiwan’s establishment of diplomatic relations with a breakaway republic in 2020 is outrageous.

The UAE, a key US ally, operates the recently expanded port and hopes it will compete with Djibouti.

During the Biden administration, high-ranking American officials, including the head of US Africa Command (Africom), visited Berbera, a 4 km airstrip ironically built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

It was later identified by the US as an emergency landing site for spaceships – interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s obsession with space.

In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, expanding security cooperation and potentially leading to stronger diplomatic and economic ties.