Which countries and regions can be affected by Asteroid 2024?

Asteroid 2024, Measuring approximately 40 to 100 meters, it will pass very close to Earth in December 2032 – and can even hit the planet. Due to the size, speed and opportunity to have an impact, the Internet gave him the nickname of the “city destroyer”.

Main space agencies such as European Space AgencyConsider that there is about 2 percent probability of 2024 to hit Earth, although this risky figure will be updated as scientists learn more about the path of the asteroid. Although much more likely asteroid They will miss the Earth, sites that could be affected by a collision have already been identified.

The destructive potential of 2024 depends on its composition, speed and mass. As the asteroid is still very far, these characteristics can only be appreciated and at this stage the consequences of the strike are also somewhat inaccurate forecasts. Astronomers are currently believed that 2024 will create an airplane explosion in the middle of the air, the impact of the Sun, which would be equivalent to nearly 8 million tonnes of TNT, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb that fell on Hiroshima. This explosion would affect approximately a 50-kilometer radius around the impact site.

For the location of the collision, some experts such as David Rankin, an engineer with NASA The Catalina Sky study project outlined a “risk corridor”. According to the present path of the asteroid and if the 2 percent probability becomes a reality, the asteroid should fall somewhere in a group of territory extending from North South America, across the Pacific to South Asia, Arabian Sea and Africa. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador would be at risk.

The threat caused by asteroids and comets that could potentially hit the ground are measured on 11-point Turin scale: The higher the result, the greater the risk that the traveling space site will affect Earth and cause large amounts of destruction. The asteroid of 2024 is up to date at Level 3, which means that it is large enough and will pass close enough to deserve to be monitored carefully. However, most international agencies are confident that the risk level will decrease over time to zero, as the asteroid trajectory becomes clearer. Initially, the likelihood of impact was 1.2 percent. It was then adjusted to 2.3 percent before the last estimate reduced the risk to 2 percent.

This is not the first time such a signal has been raised, nor is it 2024. It is the largest space site that has been observed. Asteroid Apophiswhich was discovered in 2004, at times, it is higher than 2024, both on the Turin scale and the likelihood of a collision. Shortly after it was discovered, he was given 2.7 percent of a chance to hit the ground. However, after a few months and with better observations, scientists have adjusted their calculations to more realistic values. Now, although it will go very close to Earth in 2029, the chances of collision are zero.

In response to 2024, the UN activated an emergency protocol for the protection of the planet. For the time being, given the asteroid is at Level 3 of the Turin scale, this is limited to continuous monitoring to understand the movements of the asteroid.

Earth protection measures from asteroids with destructive potential are also being developed. These include kinetic strokes in which rockets are sent to space to encounter asteroids to divert them from a path to collision with Earth. NASA’s DART mission 2023 They have proven that such blows can be launched and that they can move space objects by testing this technique of harmless asteroid called Dimorphos.

This story originally appeared on Spanish and was translated from Spanish.