What will be the impact of a North American trade war?

Donald Trump Trump’s fresh trading war has launched tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China on Saturday, stage the stage of the economic war, which will stimulate markets and industries.

What happened and why?

Washington opened 25% tariffs from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% charge for imports from China. Canadian oil hit by a lower interest rate of 10 percent. Duties will come into effect from Tuesday.

Trump said that the actions were in response to the “big threat” of migrants and drug flow in the entire area of ​​”Canadian and Mexico”.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Truden has announced a 25 percent price of 25 percent ($ 107 billion).

He said that “remote tariffs” will hit us beer, wine, bourbon, fruits, fruit juices, perfumes, clothes, shoes, household appliances, sports equipment, woods and plastic.

In Mexico, he announced that it would answer the response to US goods without indicating the size or targets. China has not yet clear how it will answer.

The three countries are one of the largest importers in the United States. At the same time, US companies have exported three countries to three countries in the first 11 months of 2024, and 17 percent of total exports left for Canada, and 7 percent to China.

What spheres will you hit?

Carmakers, food manufacturers and construction. Everyone is very popular with cross-border trade, including industry, which are probably bad.

Is US industryIn particular, the traditional large number of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, spread production on the continent on all three countries. US car suppliers are also making products in Mexico, places to the axis. About 16% of the value of the car prepared by the United States stems from work in Mexico or Canada.

About 40% of cars and trucks and trucks are for sale in the United States from Mexico or Canada, according to Bernstein Analyst Daniel Roovka. The total of GM and Ford is 30% and 25 percent, respectively.

Baird’s analyst Luke estimated that tariffs would lead to US cars for about 7.5 percent or 1.1 billion vehicles. Tariffs will increase about $ 10,000 to the value of imported cars and trucks. They will also increase about $ 1,250 in the United States, in Mexico or in Canada.

The devices working in Mexico and Canada will have to or absorb costs or increase consumer prices. Import tax can be a competitive stimulus for the sale of South Korea and Japanese multi-Japanese, which are sold in the US market, said Reskan.

Carmakers can move some models of production in US factories. GM Mariam Barna told investors on Tuesday that the company can do it or sell other global markets to minimize tariffs.

“We are working on the logistics network of our supply network and collecting plants to prepare to mitigate the formerly effects,” he added. “Most of these actions were not expenditious or at low cost. What we won’t do to spend a large amount of capital without clarity [on policy]”

Ford, GM and Stellantis refused to comment on the tariffs.

The American Authority Counselor Matt Blu, who represents all three, says that US warriors should not have their competitiveness at tariffs that will increase the cost of building in the US and Stymi in the US.

Food imports from both Canada and Mexico will be strongly strengthened. The United States has imported more than $ 45 billion in agricultural products in the US agricultural department, including strawberries, raspberries, tomatoes and beef. Another $ 40 billion came from Canada, including beef, pork, grains, potatoes and rapper.

The construction materials will also face pressure, about a third of which is used in the United States imported from Canada. Canada and Mexico combined more than fifth part of the US cement imports.

“Most of the costs of expenses caused by tariffs will be transferred to US consumers,” says James Khangli, Inning International International Economy.

What’s left?

The Canadian oil industry has saved the funnior of Trump tariffs, as the White House sought to limit the inflationary impact on US drivers.

The United States relies on raw imports to feed raw imports, about 40 percent of the country outside abroad in the country, from Mexico. A significant increase in rough import costs would be pump.

The head of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, the filtering industry, stated that he expressed hope that the deal “quickly reached” all the tariffs of the industry “before consumers feel.”

The statement of the week did not specify the EU, but Trump said that the day before, he planned to target the alliance in the future.

How long will this last last?

White House said tariffs will stay on the spot “up to [immigration and drug] Crisis crisis is mitigated. ” But analysts say they are likely to be challenged in court.

Trump used the economic powers of international emergencies in 1977. (Ieeeta), for the first time the law was used to make charges to countries.

“This step is not only an aggressive system of size and circle, but it is also an aggressive assertion of the president’s power to impose these tariffs,” said Greta Payush, a former legal specialist. “Again, he broke the new basis and tests the borders of the commercial bodies delegated by Congress.”

Trump threatened to use wide tariffs in Mexico in 2019 using Ieepa, but eventually did not use them. Richard Nixon used the Prerequisite of Ieepa in 1917. Trade with the enemy’s Act, which briefly used 10% tariffs for US trading partners.

By Myles McCormick, Aime Williams and Demetri sevastopulo in Washington, Clair Bushe in Chicago, Christin Murray in Mexico and Ilya Gridnf in Toronto