What We Know About the Proposed Gaza Ceasefire Deal

Diplomats trying to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after more than 15 months of incessant fighting in Gaza expressed cautious hope on Tuesday that a deal could finally be reached.

But that optimism has been tempered by uncertainty over whether the two sides will eventually agree, what details could still change, and the experience of the past months, when ceasefire talks have repeatedly broken down.

Majid al-Ansari, a spokesman for Qatar’s foreign ministry, one of the mediating countries, told reporters on Tuesday: “We believe we are at the final stage, but there will be no announcement until there is an announcement.”

Here’s what we know about the potential cease-fire deal.

What is the status of the negotiations?

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken said Tuesday that Israel and Hamas “right on the edgeHe agreed to an agreement on the cessation of fighting in Gaza and the release of hostages held there in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

He and diplomats from other mediating countries, including Qatar and Egypt, have been unable to make progress in talks for months, but they have made rapid progress in recent weeks.

The mediators “managed to minimize many differences between the two sides,” Mr. al-Ansari said, adding that they focused on “the final details of the agreement.”

“On Sunday, the United States, Qatar and Egypt made a final offer,” Mr. Blinken said. “The ball is now in Hamas’s court.”

Officials from both the Israeli government and Hamas have suggested they are ready to move forward if the other side signs on.

A Hamas official said on Monday that an agreement would be possible in the coming days, unless Israel suddenly changes its position. An Israeli official said on Tuesday that Israel is ready to sign the deal and is waiting for Hamas to make a decision.

Hamas officials negotiating in Qatar must seek the approval of the group’s remaining military commanders in Gaza for the deal. Among these commanders is Muhammad Sinwar, who led the group before his brother was killed by Israel in September. Because they need to keep their location private, communicating with them can be difficult and cause delays.

It was not yet clear whether Mr Sinwar had communicated his position on the ceasefire proposal to Hamas leaders in Qatar.

What does the proposal say?

Given the sensitive, ongoing negotiations, officials are reluctant to describe the proposed deal except in broad terms.

The deal’s framework is heavily inspired by earlier proposals discussed in May and July, said a diplomat familiar with the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the volatile negotiations. The proposals detailed a three-phase ceasefire in which Israeli troops would gradually withdraw from Gaza as Hamas released hostages in exchange for Palestinians arrested by Israel.

Israeli officials hope to secure the release of at least some of the 100 or so hostages held in Gaza since the Hamas-led offensive in southern Israel in October 2023 that started the war. About 35 of the remaining hostages are believed to have been killed by the Israeli authorities.

Hamas leaders want an end to Israel’s military campaign, the entry of materials for reconstruction and the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

In the first phase of the proposed truce, which would last about six weeks, Hamas would release 33 hostages believed by most Israelis to be alive, said an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations. Israel is willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in return, but the number depends on how many of the hostages are still alive.

Why did the negotiations go so fast in recent weeks?

Some officials suggest that the January 20 change in the US administration will put pressure on Israel and Hamas to speed up their decision after several months of delay.

The future president of the United States, Donald J. Trump, warned there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released before he becomes president. Steve Witkoff, whom he chose as Middle East envoy, also visited Qatar and Israel.

Negotiations gained speed after reaching Israel separate ceasefire agreement In October 2023, with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which began launching rockets into Israel immediately after the Hamas-led attack. He was badly beaten With the conflict with Israel escalating, Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire with Israel in November. It helped isolate Hamas.