What did Netanyahu gain and lose by agreeing to the Israel-Gaza ceasefire? | Israel-Palestine conflict news

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally surrendered. After more than a year of refusing to agree to an end to the war in Gaza, he is now trying to make a move. ceasefire brokers insist it will do just that.

Netanyahu’s government met on Friday to approve the dealIt will include a prisoner-for-captive exchange, Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, and an end to Israel’s devastating war in the Palestinian enclave.

The application will begin on Sunday, and charges could begin against Israel’s prime minister as he faces opposition within his own government. This opposition reverses the lines he has long insisted on: there is no end to the war until Hamas is destroyed.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has proudly said he has used his powers to block any prisoner release deal for the past year, has declared the current deal on the table “terrible” and that he will be his party. leave the government if carried out.

But this will not be enough to topple the Netanyahu government. Ben-Gvir needs the support of his fellow far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and his Religious Zionist party. Smotrich appears willing to pursue the deal, but in its first phase, it would see the release of some Israeli prisoners. After that, Religious Zionism said its members would resign from the government if the war against Gaza did not lead to many deaths by now. 46,700 Palestinians – continues.

The Trump factor

Despite these threats to his rule, Netanyahu is moving forward. The planned start of the truce is on Monday, the day before US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, a day before a deadline set by the US president-elect.

Israel’s far right saw Trump — a pro-Israel Republican who plans to bring into his administration several politicians with strong ties to the Israeli settlement movement — as their man, a president who would look the other way while the movement pursued its ambitions. Building illegal settlements and displacing its population in Gaza.

So far, it doesn’t look like that, and Trump has stressed that he wants the war to end before he takes office.

On first reading, it may be negative for Netanyahu, although the perception that the Trump administration is forcing his hand could be politically beneficial for the Israeli prime minister in the short term and give him more room for maneuver in the future.

“This may be more of an operation than many think,” said Mairav ​​Zonszein, an Israel expert at the International Crisis Group, suggesting that the hand of Israel’s longest-serving leader will not be so easily forced.

“By now agreeing, Netanyahu may have given himself more freedom to act in the West Bank and determine an agreed future for Gaza,” he said, referring to far-right Israel’s plans to annex the occupied Palestinian territory. with Israeli settlements illegal under international law.

“Everyone knew that at some point it would be necessary to change the captives. It has always been so. For many people, this is not even a safety issue. For many, the security issue is who is going to rule Gaza,” he said, referring to the third phase of the ceasefire deal, suggesting that by agreeing to a truce now, Netanyahu could be more confident of US goodwill. will deal with Gaza in the future.

Political reality

Netanyahu has maintained close ties with far-right members of his government since returning to office in late 2022. When others on the Israeli right abandoned Netanyahu over the ongoing corruption trial, it was Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who supported him. and unpopularity among large sections of the Israeli public.

Without them, he would not have been able to put a government coalition together, and without them, his government would have fallen, thereby giving himself a chance to be immune from prosecution.

But Netanyahu, long known as the great survivor, has another plan for survival.

Most people in his government, including the important ultra-Orthodox religious bloc, support the ceasefire. The opposition also said it was willing to give Netanyahu a safety net to push through the deal.

The prime minister has always had a good sense of where the Israeli public’s feelings lie, and analysts say he has realized that the mood is now more open to a deal that would ensure the return of prisoners of war and an end to the war. war.

This helps Israel to assert that it has restored deterrence and dealt a heavy blow to its enemies – Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah group and, most importantly, Iran.

But, according to Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg, triumph over these geopolitical victories has given way to a sense of acceptance and resignation that the war must end.

“No one really celebrates,” Goldberg said. “Everybody knew it was coming. Israelis have been living in a kind of confusion for the past 15 months. “Life has become difficult for many Israelis, not as difficult as we have made it difficult for Palestinians.”

“For 15 months, we’ve been told we’re on the brink of total victory, but we’ve achieved nothing but destruction and killing,” Goldberg added. “We are tired. Don’t get me wrong – if he had guaranteed security, many people would still destroy Gaza – but we’ve tried our best and we still don’t have it.”

“The Israelis are spent,” he said. “With luck, these first six weeks should be enough to develop some momentum towards regulation.”

Calculation of costs

Netanyahu can therefore take advantage of public sentiment and even present himself as having ended the war and achieved several strategic goals before any new elections, earning himself another political death sentence.

But for Israeli society, there is a price for waging war on such a scale legal groups Prisoners held in Gaza, soldiers returning from Gaza and Lebanon in coffins, and Israel’s growing international isolation have all been characterized as genocide.

In fact, for many observers, the Israel that emerged from the Gaza massacre is a far cry from the state that existed prior to the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. It caused the death of 1139 people.

During the ensuing war, the right-wing extremes of Israeli politics laid claim to the center, while the reach of the security services expanded beyond what many previously thought possible.

In May, an article by two prominent Israeli academicsEugene Kandel and Ron Tzur suggested, given the divisions caused by the country’s war on Gaza and the Netanyahu government’s attempts to take over itself. judicial review“There is a strong possibility that Israel will not exist as a sovereign Jewish state for decades to come.”

“There is definitely a moral breakdown within Israel,” said Dr. Guy Shalev, executive director of Physicians for Human Rights Israel, which has documented the denial of medical care and torture to Palestinians.

“The devaluation of human life, especially Palestinian life, which was not considered so valuable before the war, has been dramatic,” Shalev said.

“The loss of life on this scale and the (Israeli) government’s disregard for the lives of the hostages destroyed what we call in Hebrew ‘arvut hadadit,’ which refers to the sense of mutual responsibility that binds all Jews,” Shalev said. “I think fundamentally, if Palestinian lives don’t matter, then all lives matter less.”