Wall Street bets Tesla’s 2025 sales will miss Elon Musk’s target

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Wall Street’s banks expect that Tesla’s cars will grow much slower this year, than his leader Ilo, as Donald Trump tries to eliminate the climate policy of Biden, which is beneficial to electric cars.

Tesla is ready to sell 2.07 million cars this year, 16 percent more than in 2024, according to the forecasts of Analysts compiled by FactSet. It will be backward compared to last year when the band reported The first decline since 2011However, it is significantly lower than 20-30 percent of the Mask, which was intended in October and low on the previous two years of annual growth rates, about 40 percent.

Numbers emphasize the challenge Visitation Faces from Trump’s promise, the policy of recalling EV sales, even when the two men’s intimacy, led to the title of “first friend” on the eve of the president’s inauguration.

Last week, the Executive Committee said that the White House will discuss “the abolition of other bad ideas imposed by the government’s market.”

“Trump 2.0’s contrast to EV stimulations hit the expectations of 2025,” says Adam Johnas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Trump He has maintained its position on EVs, despite the relations with the Musk, who has been appointed to lead a new government’s Efficiency Department or Dodge.

On Wednesday, Tesla, which reports the profit of the fourth quarter, will take a hard blow if Trump canceled $ 7,500 a tax credit for EV buyers. Barclays analyst Dan Levi estimated that about two-thirds of sales in Tesla benefit from loans.

Changes in electricity subsidies will probably come into force in 2026. Some analysts say Tesla sales indicators can increase by buyers who are in a hurry to complete the sale. Levi had predicted “Significant Purpose of EC” in the second half of 2025, until the fall of the next year. Other analysts believed that initial purchases already stimulate Tesla sales.

Some analysts questioned how large the initial purchase would be. According to BNP Paribas Exane, the growth of volume this year can be up to 12%.

Tesla’s investors are also concerned about the wider pressures of the electrical engineering market, China’s competition [and] Slowding of Cybertruck’s volumes, “Johnas said.

The total sales growth in the United States slowed down due to lack of high prices and new models last year. The share of the electricity market was 8%, compared to 7.6% of 2023.

At the same time, Trump’s commercial policy toward China can sharpen tension with Tesla’s second largest market.

Maski Furious Support Trump and Interventions in British, Italian and German politics can also turn off some potential customers. Tesla’s EU sales decreased by 13% in 2024, according to ACEA, European Automotive Industry.

Ginny Baklin, a website on the purchase of electricity, the founder of Electrifying.com says: “Tesla was the market leader and still in many ways, but people turn off.”

Tesla’s aging portfolio is another reason for investors’ concern. The only new model, which has been released by Model Y sports car in 2020, is Cybertruck that starts with $ 82,000 and is sold from 9,000 to 12,000 points in one quarter.

This year, Tesla is improving Model Y, but last year it canceled a $ 25,000 new car plans, known to the public as Model 2 and known as NV91. The Mask was vague about the NV91 legal successor plans, which caused some analysts that it could announce this year about Model 2.5.

The company hinted to investors that the new model could appear in the second half of this year. Many expect additional details to emerge this week.

The Mask used to predict that Tesla’s total sales may exceed 20 million a year in the future. But even a new available offer, RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said it was unlikely. He expects Tesla can eventually reach 6 million sales a year.

Despite the risk of stiring growth, analysts say that the future of Tesla seems brilliantly due to its axis in artificial intelligence. The Musk is gaining to the progress of artificial intelligence technology possible to build a Autonomous “Robotics” Navy.

“The sale of cars is a small part of it,” Narayan said, adding that Tesla’s new income flow will come from the semi-author.

Tesla also builds a manlike robot that will be “the largest product ever” and should be evaluated from $ 25 trillion to $ 1.3 trillion from market capitalization.

“Trump’s” Friendly Regulator “White House helps open the value of Tesla’s securities as autonomous [car] The schedule is probably accelerated, “says Wedbush Analyst Daniel Iws.

“There will be anti-electrocratical energy concentration and $ 7,500 tax visas, but it will be balanced by” focusing on artificial intelligence, which provides very favorable winds, “he said.