Trump’s trade war shatters hopes of 2025 luxury revival

Donald Trump’s trading war has been expecting a well-founded recovery in the luxury market this year, as tariffs threaten to extend the demand for bags and high-quality clocks.

USA and China, twin engines, have continued to post title imports to each other’s products, which risk consumer confidence in the world’s two largest economies.

Analysts responded to growth growth in industry. This week, Bernstein predicted that luxury would suffer a 2% decline in income in 2025 due to 5% increase due to increasing economic uncertainty and increasing the likelihood of global decline.

“Our basic work is now in luxury, which is pushed in 2026,” said one banker in the industry.

It is obvious to the European Tariff for Technology, China, only for the administration, which signals the consumer electronics in a separate regime of the duties on Sunday.

But while Trump could have changed his tariff plans yet, the banker said. “Damage has been done a lot.”

LVMH, whose billionaire Bess Bessart Arnault flew to Washington at the end of March, started long-term acquaintance on Monday.

In January, the Territory attended the inauguration of Trump and then highly assessed the “wind of optimism” that fled by the United States. A gorgeous magnet said when he was discussing LVMH US Production GrowthA number

Barclays expect an organic sale in LVMH’s main fashion and leather goods section. 1 percent down to industry by 1 percent in the first quarter. The group sales are expected to be an apartment compared to the same period last year.

On the eve of 2025, Luca Solsa, who was cut off for the sphere, even after Wednesday’s victory announced its readiness to resume trade agreements with the United States.

“Returning back to previous numbers, it seems that what happened was just a bad dream, it’s in the question.

“Uncertainty prevails supreme, which is usually an excellent background for decline,” he added.

During the epidemic, after the historical boom, when consumers were divided into high-quality bags and alcohol, the luxury was stuck down the fall, as the average class buyers passed in the costs of China. It is now complicated by Trump’s trading war.

Trump has singled out China, a key market for a luxury sector for punishment. The US tariffs are now 145%. In response, China raised US import tariffs 125 percent.

Most of the luxury goods are made in France and Italy, while high quality watches are being made in Switzerland. The United States is exposed to all three countries at a higher rate of at the beginning at the beginning.

Trump traffic jam has created chaos to the ground. One of the executives said that his company had to change the pace of delivery on deliveries, which were three weeks trip to the United States three weeks.

“The loss of trust is long. .. and uncertainty is absolutely cool for consumer mood,” he added.

Tariffs, as they stand today, are still more manageable for luxury companies than many others, and stronger brands are more silent to mitigate the impact through prices. But deeper damage in the corresponding industry in the respective industry is psychological.

In the global stock markets, the brutal sales will leave very luxurious buyers who feed their wounds this year. “If you watch what happens to the stock market, you can [basically] Predict the level of business among our boutiques, “said Bruno Pavlovsky, President of the Chuman Fashion, last month.

Esb. Executive Director Eruan Ramburg writes that the risks of luxury are given a combination of wealth, the strength of consumer expenditures and a wide deterioration of consumer mood.

“We expect to be quite literally, less champagne bottles will fall less than this year,” he wrote.

HSBC now expects organic sales to fall 5 percent this year, compared to its previous expectation, which sales will remain smooth compared to 2024.

The bank’s analysts have updated the luxurious stocks at the end of last year, with conviction that they will benefit from the US-based US-based US. “It will no longer be in our point of view,” they wrote.

China’s “light growth” expectations, painful after 2024, seem more and more.

However, HermesThe high-looking group behind Birkin bags is expected to continue to exceed. BARCLAYS analysts estimate that his sales will increase by 8% in the first quarter.

But Problems: In Gucci, the largest brand of KERM, have left the group to be seen in any decline. Barclays expect Gucci’s sales will be 25 percent in the first quarter, and Bernstein warns that Kerry is now “highly unbelievable” to meet his guidance in 2025.

Additional report of Losen Inducer in London and Alex Rogers in Washington