Trump’s return has angered world leaders. But not India.

Several legal implosions over the past year have made India’s growing relationship with the United States one of its biggest tests yet.

As both sides announced unprecedented expansions in defense and technology, US prosecutors accused agents of the Indian government to conspire American citizen in US territory.

Months later, the Ministry of Justice accused of fraud and bribery Against India’s most prominent business tycoon, whose businesses have grown to dizzying heights with the power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Again, the relationship was maintained. After decades of mutual suspicion between the two countries, Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, said that the fact that nothing can now break their ties is a testament to their strength.

“I don’t think there’s anything big enough to threaten the trajectory of US-India relations,” Mr. Garcetti said in an interview at the embassy in New Delhi on Saturday, two days before President Biden leaves office and Donald J. Trump is sworn in as his successor.

“It’s incredibly robust and almost inevitable,” Mr. Garcetti said. “It’s not really about speed and progress, it’s about how quickly we get there.”

The Biden administration’s doubling down on relations with India comes after nearly two decades of efforts to overcome Cold War-era suspicions that culminated in 1998 U.S. sanctions on India’s nuclear program.

Washington sees great potential in India as a geopolitical counterweight to an increasingly assertive China. Already the world’s largest democracy, India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. India’s demographic advantages and growing technological prowess could help shift global supply chains away from China, a priority of the US and other major powers.

Now comes Mr. Trump’s second presidency, his first targeting of America and his threats to impose high tariffs on trading partners. While leaders of many countries are nervous, Indian officials insist they are not among them.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India enjoyed a “positive political relationship with Trump” and hoped it would only deepen. While attending the inauguration of the US Consulate in the tech hub known as Bangalore on Friday, Mr Jaishankar said Mr Modi had overcome the “hesitations of history” of the two countries.

Mr. Modi has enjoyed a strong relationship with Mr. Trump, an important factor because of the incoming president’s personal approach to international relations. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Modi hosted him at a grand rally in his home state of Gujarat, as well as a large gathering of the Indian diaspora in Texas — an increasingly important extension of India’s influence in American politics.

But some analysts have warned that Mr Trump’s unpredictability and transactional approach could pose risks for India.

Two issues in particular are bound to test ties, and likely soon. During the campaign, Mr. Trump criticized India for gaining an unfair advantage in trade by maintaining high tariffs. India could enter the fray if Mr Trump follows through on his promise to deport illegal immigrants en masse.

Indians constitute the third largest illegal immigrant group in the United States. Pew Research center. If Mr. Trump sends back a large number of Indians, it could be a huge embarrassment for Mr. Modi.

Amita Batra, a New Delhi-based economist and trade expert, said India should see warning signs in Mr Trump’s threats of higher tariffs even against traditional US allies, and his readiness to break deals with countries such as Mexico and Canada. had put his first administration in place.

At the event held at the Social Center, Dr. Batra said, “You can say that we have a good relationship with Trump, and we have an easy relationship with the United States. and Economic Development in New Delhi. “India should approach Trump 2.0 with great caution.”

During the interview, Mr. Garcetti described bilateral relations as “the most attractive, challenging and fruitful” for both countries.

Mr. Garcetti, the former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, arrived in New Delhi in April 2023 after the mission had been without an ambassador for two years. His confirmation process walled off allegations that he ignored sexual harassment complaints from an aide while mayor.

For lost time, he made up for it with a burst of energy and publicity as a politician in campaign mode.

It was everywhere from cricket grounds to canteens to cultural programmes. Sporting a leather jacket, he even stepped behind the piano to open for jazz legends Herbie Hancock and Dianne Reeves, who came to perform at the Piano Man Jazz Club in New Delhi..

But by then, Mr. Garcetti had tested himself dance to a viral Bollywood tune Relations between the two countries suffered major setbacks on the occasion of Diwali.

Right-wing trolls in India have seized on US allegations of Indian government involvement in a plot to assassinate an American citizen who advocated separatist causes in India. Nationalist voices online argued that this, along with the indictment of US business tycoon Gautam Adani, was evidence that the United States was trying to undercut India’s imminent rise.

The Biden administration intended to resolve the assassination episode quietly with New Delhi and demand accountability without letting it become a major diplomatic pain point.

“Inside the White House on Capitol Hill, I think with those who know, it was a moment of real reflection and pause,” Mr. Garcetti said of the assassination case. “It didn’t stop the momentum – you know, relations between countries are always multifaceted and simultaneous, and not just between governments. But I think it was an immediate gut check.

Mr. Garcetti said the Biden administration was reassured by India’s response. New Delhi accepted the US demand, he said, “not just for accountability, but for systemic reforms and guarantees that this will not happen again.”

An Indian government inquiry, which concluded last week, recommended legal action against an unnamed man with “previous criminal links”. It said the move, which analysts see as an attempt to start the Trump era with a clean slate, “must be completed soon.”

“If we want to cooperate in other areas that are important to us, intelligence sharing and so on, trust is the foundation of everything,” Mr. Garcetti said. “But I was amazed at how faith can be deepened by a challenge.”

One question hanging over the deepening ties between the two countries is whether India can really emerge as an alternative to China in global supply chains – something Mr. Garcetti wonders about.

India has reaped only a fraction of the revenue from moving away from China, with businesses opting for places like Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico where it’s easier to set up operations and where tariffs are lower.

Mr. Garcetti said India made dramatic leaps after opening up its economy only in the 1990s, years after China. He took the iPhone to show his widely-touted recent success: about 15 percent iPhone manufacturing now takes place in Indiaa figure that could continue to grow rapidly, he said.

More broadly, India still struggles to attract foreign investment, despite improvements in infrastructure and some simplification of regulations. Manufacturing is not growing fast enough to bring much-needed jobs to India.

“Where India puts so much progress, jobs and growth on the table, there is a better way to make investing here for exports seamless and frictionless,” Mr. Garcetti said. “Because, you know, it’s still, for many components of manufacturing, even if it’s not one of the highest-tariff economies.”

“They’re not wrong to look at it and say it’s 95 percent worse,” Mr. Garcetti said. “But if that 5 percent is still twice as much as your competitor or 10 times as much as your competitor, you know that companies are like water. They flow where gravity takes them.”