Trump helped secure a Gaza ceasefire deal. Can it last?

Donald Trump was typically blunt when he first warned in December that there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released before his inauguration.

The US president-elect’s bellicose tone paid off, adding momentum to long-delayed talks culminating in a cease-fire agreement with Israel and Hamas on Wednesday that would end the devastating 15-month war in Gaza and free the remaining 98 prisoners held in Gaza .

Steve Witkow, a friend of Trump’s in the New York real estate business, became the Middle East envoy, playing a central role as he toured Qatar, which brokered talks between Israel and brokers that finally secured a deal that had long eluded the Biden administration.

It should mean that the people of Gaza, who have suffered immeasurably during the deadliest war in their history, will finally have some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets and can begin to think about rebuilding.

After the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas that killed 1,200 people, relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages will begin to hope that their nightmare is over, according to Israeli officials, although most of the captives are believed to be dead. which have been living a hellish existence in Hamas’ network of tunnels, will be released if the deal station.

The key question is whether it can last: will this be a temporary lull or will it lead to the permanent ceasefire that brokers, the Palestinians and the wider region desperately want?

Trump has already claimed victory by helping to secure a deal where President Joe Biden failed, but the durability of the truce brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt may depend on his willingness to continue using US political muscle, including ensuring that Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government will implement the deal.

The incoming Trump administration is full of pro-Israel loyalists, and during his first term he showed little compassion or patience for the Palestinians when he implemented a series of pro-Israel measures that overturned decades of U.S. policy success.

However, there will be a threat of spoilers from all sides, including from Hamas, whose military capabilities have been severely weakened but not eradicated.

The cease-fire agreement is based on a three-phase proposal that Biden first approved in May.It would begin with an initial 42-day truce, during which 33 hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, would be released in exchange for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners. that Israeli troops should be redeployed away from urban centers and allow aid to flow into a zone haunted by famine and disease.

More difficult is the second phase, which aims to lead to a permanent ceasefire, the release of remaining hostages, including Israeli soldiers, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.

At this stage, the details of which have yet to be negotiated, Netanyahu’s commitment will be fully tested.

He has repeatedly ruled out agreeing to a permanent end to the war or the withdrawal of his forces from Gaza, while Hamas has demanded the release of high-profile prisoners, including those serving life sentences for murder and terrorism, in exchange for soldiers being held hostage, a bitter pill to swallow for Israelis.

Netanyahu is already facing resistance from far-right allies and ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who described the deal as a “surrender.” Ben-Gvir this week called on the former to join forces in resigning from the government.

While the veteran prime minister’s ruling coalition was bolstered by the addition of another right-wing party in September, the departure of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich would still leave him with a minority government, potentially forcing Netanyahu to an early election, a political reckoning at the ballot box that he has sought to avoid.

It is still not clear who will lead the strip. Neither Israel, the US nor Arab countries want Hamas, which has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, to regain control, but Netanyahu has not presented a viable plan for the “day after” war. He rejected US and Arab pressure to work with the Palestinian Authority, which controls limited parts of the occupied West Bank.

He opposes any move to create a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.

The Biden administration has been talking with Arab partners for months about the possible creation of an international security force that would work alongside the PA-backed Palestinian Authority, including the Gaza Strip, to deal with civilian affairs.

But the U.S. wouldn’t put boots on the ground, and it’s unclear who, if anyone, would, given the risks of being drawn into the rebellion and being seen as complying with Israel’s demand After the day, he thought about the future of Gaza.

However, the needs of the people of Gaza could not be more urgent. According to Palestinian officials, more than 46,000 people, including civilians and militants, have been killed, and a generation of children have been left orphaned and scarred for life left.

Schools, hospitals, houses, offices and enterprises were destroyed. The vast majority of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have been forced to flee their homes, many not knowing what they will find when they return.

Trump is likely to focus on pushing for a grand deal that would lead to Saudi Arabia’s normalization of relations with Israel, but Riyadh insists that can only happen if Israel takes irreversible steps toward a Palestinian state.

Under Netanyahu and his far-right allies, Israel is more likely to want to annex the West Bank or intensify military operations with Iran than make concessions to the Palestinians.

The termination of the war lasted almost a year of negotiations. But compared to the Herculean task of rebuilding Gaza, let alone the long-term goal of lasting peace in the region, it may be clear that was the easy part.