Trump has threatened Canada in various ways. What does he really want?
Donald Trump’s increasingly tough approach to relations with Canada is raising fears of potential repercussions north of the border and questions about how serious the US president-elect really is.
Threatening to cripple Canada’s economy with tariffs on his return to the White House, Trump upped the ante on Tuesday by saying he wants to use “economic power” to “get rid” of the border between the two countries. countries.
Trying to translate what Trump says into what he actually means can be a difficult exercise.
But with four years of evidence from his first term turning some words into action, combined with some hard economic facts about Canada-US trade, it’s possible to draw a few educated conclusions.
“It’s hard to know if he’s ever taken anything seriously, but he continues to make many of his most outrageous statements,” said Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at Western University in London, in an interview with CBC News. .
It also helps to remember the advice of one writer who covered Trump extensively in 2016: take what he says. seriously, but not always literally.
US President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his concerns with Canada on Tuesday, citing concerns about Canada’s military and claims that the US subsidizes the Canadian economy. He ruled out military force against Canada, saying he would rely on “economic power” when he returns to the Oval Office.
Here’s a guide to trying to figure out what Trump means when he talks about Canada.
“Very serious tariffs”
after framing initially Threatening to impose a 25 percent tariff on imported goods that neighboring countries could avoid if they improved border security, Trump is no longer talking in terms of rhetoric.
“We are going to impose very severe tariffs on Mexico and Canada,” Trump said at a news conference on Tuesday. Apparently, the president-elect wasn’t satisfied with the $1.2 billion border security plan the Trudeau government put together and presented to Trump’s transition team last month.
Canadian officials are already increasingly worried about Trump made his decision Officials have drawn up a list of hundreds of American-made goods that Canada is considering in order to impose tariffs on at least some of Canada’s exports to the United States. hits with response ratesA senior source in the Canadian government told CBC’s Cathy Simpson about it.
There is some doubt that Trump will impose tariffs on Canada’s biggest export, crude oil, because that could raise the price of gas at the pumps in the United States. fee
His linking of tariffs to border security provides the apparent legal justification needed to impose them. Only Congress has the power to set tariffs, with some exceptions, including the president national economic emergencyHe threatened to do something about Mexico in 2019.
Trump and his is elected to the position of secretary of commerceHoward Lutnick sees the tariffs as potentially significant source of income For the US Treasury – something that could help fund income tax cuts despite evidence that action will be forthcoming economic loss more Americans than will help.
“Economic Power”
During the press conference, Trump categorically refused to rule out the use of the military to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland. A reporter later asked Trump if he “considered Canada a military power to annex and acquire.”
“No,” Trump replied. “Economic power.”
Tariffs of 25 percent are certainly seen as a major economic boost.
The stark reality is that Canada-US trade is more proportional to the Canadian economy than to the US economy. USA calculated 77 percent of the value of Canadian exports and 63 percent of its imports in 2023. In contrast, Canada calculated 17 percent of the value of U.S. exports and only 13.5 percent of its imports in the same year.
That’s how some Trump followers see the tariff threats a method of obtaining leverage In the upcoming renegotiation of the trilateral trade agreement it signed with Canada and Mexico in 2018.
Given Justin Trudeau, there is a train of thought that Trump sees Canada as politically weak inevitable departure The struggle of the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party at the polls.
US President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to use “economic power” to annex Canada, but is he serious or just another negotiating tactic? The National’s Adrienne Arsenault poses the question to two former ambassadors.
“Hundreds of billions a year to take care of Canada”
Canadian officials told CBC News that Trump is He is unhappy about the US trade deficit with Canada.
He has consistently — and inaccurately — described the trade imbalance as the U.S. subsidizing Canada. He also exaggerated the size of the trade deficit 68 billion US dollars In 2023.
“We spend hundreds of billions a year to take care of Canada,” Trump said at a press conference. “Why should we have a $200-billion deficit? Add to the many other things we give (Canada) in terms of subsidies.”
Trump gave one example of these “many other things”: defense.
“They rely on our army. “It’s all good, but you know, they have to pay for it. It’s so unfair.”
Trump clearly has an idea in this matter. It’s Canada is currently spending defense is about 1.3 percent of GDP, well below the NATO guideline of two percent. Canada will need to spend about $21 billion more on the military this year to meet that target. Trump has long been concerned that NATO countries are not pulling their weight in the military alliance.
“We don’t need anything from them”
In a series of press conferences, Trump said that the United States does not need to import cars, lumber or dairy products from Canada.
Whether or not this is true is debatable, but what he says is a shame for Canadian companies in these sectors.
It is being read as a sign that Trump is willing to flex his US economic muscle to protect American industries.
Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, a bi-national business group, says Canada needs to show Trump and his officials concrete ways that free trade with Canada is good for the United States.
“Canada needs a strategy that doesn’t just ask for what we need,” Dawson told CBC News Network’s Aarti Pole.
“We need proactive proposals that say, ‘What are we doing about security, what are we doing about energy, what are we doing about critical minerals and advanced manufacturing?’ deal with it and it will be great for North America,” Dawson said
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Immigration Minister Mark Miller and International Trade Secretary Mary Ng responded to US President-elect Donald Trump’s comments that he would use “economic force” to push Canada into the United States.
“Get rid of that artificial line”
The notion of Canada becoming a 51st province is a Trump threat that Canadians may not want to take literally, although there are reasons to take it seriously.
Over the past few weeks, Trump has frequently mocked Trudeau as the “governor” of the “province of Canada” on social media and referred to Canada as the 51st state.
Trump also talked about Canada becoming a state at the end of November Dinner with Trudeau. after previously dismissed Treasury Secretary Dominic LeBlanc dismissed Trump’s comments as a light joke changed his tune on Wednesday, saying “the joke’s over.”
Trump’s amplified words at the press conference left many other Canadians wondering if they could really just laugh.
“Canada and the United States, that would really be something,” Trump said. “You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you look at what that looks like, and it would also be better for national security.”
From silly AI-generated social media posts to “economic power” threats, Donald Trump has been attacking Canada’s sovereignty for weeks. CBC’s Ellen Mauro breaks down the president-elect’s escalating anti-Canada rhetoric.
Canada becoming the 51st state just isn’t going to happen, says nine-term Democratic Representative Jim Hines of Connecticut.
He told MSNBC that Trump’s views on the subject are “little foils and fireworks designed to distract us from the fact that the president-elect is not delivering on his economic promises to the people.”
You also have to wonder why Trump or the Republicans in Congress are so eager to accept on equal footing – As required by the US Constitution — California’s population and a new state with the potential to change the outcome of future presidential and congressional elections.
Given that none of Canada’s political parties are in favor of becoming the 51st state, and there is no evidence that ordinary Canadians are in any rush to join the United States, it is extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which Canada willingly renounces its sovereign state status. .
That is, unless it’s a doomsday scenario: that is, Trump’s prolonged use of so much “economic power” causes the Canadian economy to collapse, leading to massive job losses and social unrest north of the border. Canadians are beginning to see joining the US as the only alternative.
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