There are no shortcuts to manage the Russia challenge

Open the White House viewing newsletter for free

Your Guide to What is the US 2024 Choice for Washington and the World

The writer is the director of the Carnegie Rs. Center in Berlin

When Vladimir Putin ordered the entire invasion of Ukraine three years ago, it was a watershed, which was like 9/11. Russia’s attack on its neighbor, despite the division of the rooted country, was not inevitable. When it happened, the war changed the course of history. The perfect storm of the challenges facing Western leaders is unprecedented in living memory and managing relations with Rogue Russian is one of the most consistent.

Nowing, entering his fourth year, the war destroyed Ukraine, the main victim of unnecessary horror unleashed by the Kremlin. Russia is a remote second, but still the war is a strategic disaster. In particular, if measured against all peaceful alternative trajectories. The sad irony is that by invading Ukraine, Putin has created long-term security challenges for Russia, which did not exist before. Three years ago, it was unlikely that the Western missiles would be released by military targets within Russia that the non-nuclear country would occupy a piece of Russia, and that many Moscow’s special relations with Germany will be eliminated. It’s all happened yet. Moreover, Putin has turned the Ukrainians into a nation of the aggrieved nation of his teeth and is looking for a number of measures taken by those who used to “brothers.”

Russia has really suffered “strategic defeat”, as the US Secretary of State announced on March 2022, as the attack on Kiev was collapsed by humiliating Russia. But fast before and 2025, and the picture is much worse than the victorious expectations in the West preached their public and Ukrainians. Russia has absorbed failures, although it grows on victims and devastated equipment, the beaten Ukrainian troops are delighted. Moreover, the Kremlin has launched military reconstruction. By 2030, his war car is likely to be greater and better.

He stood before the Tsunami of Western sanctions that Russia’s economy would be a long time. But unlike the USSR, it passes through market principles and is headed by the technocrats. The country is also an important exporter of oil and other products, which is difficult to completely reduced without thwarting global markets. This, as well as from China and other non-Western countries, explains the graduation of sanctions, as well as Russia’s stability. Finally, the Russian society – before the war, a atomation was frustrated, and such atomic elites gathered around Putin.

Then, with the most amazing plot, Putin was successful in the US Donald Trump’s election, which seeks to end the war and reduce the American involvement. The war has been in a negative trajectory for some time, at least when Ukraine spoiled 2023 counterattacked. But Trump’s choice makes the problem much worse. The Kremlin hopes that since he is looking for a quick deal, it can also be a dirty deal, which will simply stop hostilities, but does not leave Ukraine with unrest safety guarantees.

Whatever, the unpredictable result of Trump’s diplomatic cavalry charge is one thing is clear. Even if weapons in Ukraine are silent, if Trump eliminates Russia’s sanctions in the Kremlin It is that Moscow will start preparing for its intimidation against Europe.

Three years ago, the Western capitals believed that Kiev would fall for several days. The combination of Ukrainian’s courage and ingenuity, Russia’s inclination and Western support prevented the scenario. Ukraine is still standing, Europe is painfully reduced its dependence on Russian raw materials and investments in curbing. But through other measurements, the situation is worse for Europeans than in early 2022. Progress the development of industrial base remains fragile. Under the influence of war, many countries were found in many countries to increase large amounts of defense. Most importantly, instead of its traditional role, the United States is a source of risks in itself. For everything, everything inside the EU and greater countries is more broken. Even if such competent road maps are composed to solve these problems, will there be a political will to follow them?

A problem that the West can and must apply, its desirable thinking to win Putin and manage Russia’s challenge. An unrealistic expectations of the absolute victory, which are rooted in an obviously unsatisfactory absence, were part of the problem. It’s time to have a calm, sober thinking conversation, how to mitigate the threats that will join Russia in the coming decade, and how to prepare next.