The Israel-Hamas reconciliation leaves big questions unresolved for now
Israel and Hamas have agreed to an initial six-week truce, putting their most intractable dispute into a murky second phase that neither side is certain will be achieved.
According to the agreement, 16 days after the initial cease-fire, Israeli and Hamas officials are expected to begin negotiations on the next steps: an end to the war, the release of the remaining living hostages from Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area.
Israeli leaders have long insisted that the war will not end until Hamas is destroyed. It seemed far from reality on Sunday as Hamas militants, some waving rifles, took off in pickup trucks in parts of Gaza in a show of authority to Palestinians and Israelis alike.
Israel and Hamas both kept part of their bargain. At the end of the 42-day ceasefire, Hamas will have about two-thirds of the remaining 98 hostages, including dozens of hostages still believed to be dead. Israel will still occupy parts of Gaza and hold key prisoners, including militant leader and prominent Palestinian political figure Marwan Barghouti.
But as part of the negotiations, the Israeli government will likely have to choose between the war aims of bringing hostages home and destroying Hamas over the other. The election of hostages may threaten Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s power in Israel.
Retired Israeli Brigadier General Shlomo Brom said that in the meantime, both sides had agreed to postpone a decisive deal on the end of the war and the future of Gaza, and hoped that a 42-day ceasefire would work in their favor. In particular, Hamas “hopes that the new dynamics will prevent Israel from returning to the fight,” he said.
The decision to accept the temporary ceasefire opened deep cracks in Mr Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, which is packed with hardliners. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, resigned from the cabinet in protest on Sunday and pulled the Jewish Power party he leads from the coalition.
The Religious Zionist party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, has threatened to dissolve the coalition if Mr. Netanyahu fails to resume fighting after the end of the 42-day ceasefire. If Mr. Smotrich’s party also leaves, Mr. Netanyahu’s government will hold less than half the seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, which could lead to the government’s collapse and new elections.
On Saturday night, Mr. Netanyahu stressed that the ceasefire was temporary for now. He asserted that Israel reserves the right to return to war “if the second round of negotiations is ineffective,” adding that President-elect Donald J. Trump would support Israel’s decision.
“We reserve the right to return to war, if necessary, with the support of the United States,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a televised address.
The fragility of the ceasefire was highlighted on Sunday morning when Hamas did not immediately hand over a list of hostages to be released to Israel, delaying the ceasefire by nearly three hours. Analysts say the deal is expected to undergo many similar tests over the next few weeks as both sides flex their muscles.
The families of the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza called on the Israeli government to fulfill all the stages of the agreement and return the remaining captives to their homes. Freed hostage Noa Argamani, whose boyfriend Avinathan Or is in captivity, said he was heartbroken that he would not be released this round.
“The progress made in the last few days is a very important step, but the deal must be fully, completely passed in all its phases,” Ms Argamani said in a speech in Miami on Thursday.