The ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip brings joy but is tinged with uncertainty

After 15 months of bombardment and suffering in Gaza, a cease-fire and a hostage-free deal are cheering for Palestinians and Israelis, but tinged with uncertainty.

A deal for the Palestinians, if finalized, would likely offer at least a few weeks of reprieve. Israel’s devastating military campaign It has killed more than 45,000 people in Gaza, both civilians and fighters.

For the Israelis, this could allow the release of at least a third of the remaining hostages held by Hamas and its allies. The prisoners were taken by Hamas On October 7, 2023, he invaded IsraelThe first of the 466-day war.

But the uncertainty of the deal, drafts of which have been reviewed by The Times, also means uncertainty will continue and conflict is likely to flare up again within weeks. To convince both sides to sign, mediators created an agreement so loosely worded that some of its components remain unresolved, meaning it could easily fall apart.

In the first six weeks of the deal, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Israel must also gradually withdraw its troops eastward and allow hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Palestinians to return to their homes.

For the six-week deal to be permanent, the parties still need to resolve certain issues, including conditions under which it would release about 65 other hostages, some of whom are believed to be under Hamas control.

If these talks break down, the war may continue even after the 42-day ceasefire.

This means that the coming weeks will be difficult for the families of the Israeli hostages, who are unlikely to be released in the first phase of the deal. Gazans will live with the possibility that Israeli strikes may continue.

This uncertainty poses a potential threat to both Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

If war resumes, a severely weakened Hamas may eventually lose control of Gaza. If the deal is permanent, Hamas will survive the war — a symbolic victory for the group, which suddenly appears close to losing its 17-year rule over the territory.

But such an outcome could be damaging for Mr Netanyahu, whose far-right coalition partners Hamas have threatened to leave his coalition if he survives, destabilizing and potentially bringing down his government.

For months, Mr. Netanyahu has avoided regulation that would pose such a threat to his rule. The vagueness of the treaty is partly the result of his need to present it as only a temporary arrangement.

The coming weeks could help clarify whether the prime minister feels politically strong enough to face his coalition partners. Even if he does, other groups are waiting: The end of the war is likely to lead to a national inquiry into Israel’s security failures on October 7, 2023, with revelations that could potentially damage Mr. Netanyahu and his security chiefs.