Supercomputer predicts Premier League title winner after Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool stumble
In a weekend that saw Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Juventus drop points, the Premier League title chasers also stumbled.
Arsenal were held to a dismal goalless draw by Everton, while Liverpool managed to four-goal thriller with Fulham feel like you’ve won a point instead of dropped two. Manchester City were three minutes away from regaining their footing in the title race before Amad Diallo inspired Manchester United to a Victory of the derby day 2-1.
Chelsea, the team desperate to avoid talk of the title race, were the only bottom-of-the-table team to pick up all three points this weekend, despite doing their best to launch a win over Brentford sunday night
Here’s how it has affected this calamitous round of matches to choose‘s statistically supported predictions.
The formation of the pack of pursuers behind Liverpool changed significantly this weekend. Chelseawho started the round as fourth favourites, overtook Manchester City in the predictive rankings.
The Blues have a 5.5% chance of winning the title. “I don’t even know what a title race is, to be honest,” joked Nicolas Jackson after scoring the decisive goal in Sunday’s 2-1 win that moved his side within two points of top spot. “I don’t even look at the table,” insisted the striker. That could soon change if Chelsea continue to close the gap on Liverpool.
Chelsea are even more likely to finish third (35.5%) and have a 5.3% chance of missing out on the top four altogether. arsenal remain Liverpool’s closest rivals, finishing above the Reds in 10.6% of the 10,000 simulations that of Opta Calculation of advanced statistical models.
The Gunners are increasingly reliant on him game situations on the cutting edge, a worrying trend that was painfully evident during a lukewarm stagnation at home to Everton on Saturday. Arteta’s side have scored just 15 times from open play in 16 top-flight games, fewer than relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Liverpool they have no problem finding the bottom of the net, even when it’s down to ten players. Arne Slot’s unmanageable side fell behind twice at home to Fulham on Saturday afternoon but came away with a point and renewed momentum in the title race.
The Reds can only hold a two-point lead over Chelsea, with a game in hand against Everton after that postponement of the derby – but the supercomputer gives Liverpool an 82.0% chance of winning just their second title of the Premier League era.
Manchester Citychasing their fifth crown at the turn, they are left with just a 1.9% chance of finishing at the top of the pile once again. In the last seven Premier League games since Halloween, Pep Guardiola’s side have picked up a woeful four points, the same tally as Southampton, who have been discovered. fired coach Russell Martin on sunday
There is little danger of Guardiola losing his job wherever City finish, but top spot is looking increasingly unlikely.
|
classification |
club |
Probability of winning the Premier League |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
82.0% |
|
2. |
arsenal |
10.6% |
|
3. |
Chelsea |
5.5% |
|
4. |
Man City |
1.9% |
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