Smaller countries learn to hedge their bets in the age of Trump
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In normal conditions, Cook Islands only pay attention to honeymons, green activists and Kiwi diplomats. This is that the countryside of the remote Pacific is a security deal with New Zealand (by extension, western allies) and shocking palm beaches that threaten seas.
But we don’t live in normal times. US President Donald Trump smashes post-war geopolitical order. And this week Mark Brown, COOK ISLANDS PREMIER, started in the investment transaction With China.
The new Zealand government laughs loudly with horror, fearing Trump from revenge. But the cook islands seem to be unavailable. And in the Pacific Oceans, these soil spots have become a strong symbol of how geopolitical sands change.
As the trump card blows around the world, the two main theme becomes clear. America’s leaders are determined to promote US growth at any cost, be that environmental, social or diplomatic; And they are equally determined to use hegemonic authority, surprise military, financial, financial, technology and trade.
As a result, other peoples are three choices. Become a vassal of the imperial force of the Americas. Apply to it with US competitors such as China and Russia. Or copy the cook islands and try to fence your bets.
Some have already made their choice. Take Nicaragua. Last month, the victories of the victories of Panama invaded and / or to go out of its famous canal. The Nicaragua government changed its constitution To make the construction of a water pipeline connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. This can be an alternative to the Panama Canal and shows that Nicaragua doubles about being in China Camp.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Japanese Prime Minister, Tagagru, has moved to tribute. During his visit to Washington last week, he highly assessed the Trump’s “efforts to bring peace” and promised to invest in US dollar and bought American liquefied natural gas Oodles.
I predict that Tokyo will soon try to strengthen Yen (American complaints on competitive devaluation) and can even buy long-term or eternal treasures of US military protection).
Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Naryilla Modin, This week has been in Washingtonpromising to raise the import of LNG and aircraft. And Britain simply decided on the Artificial Intelligence Summit of Paris with America.
When I recently talked to the Prime Minister of Vietnam, he also distorted the trump for diverting the US President’s third largest bilateral trade commercials (largely global companies were moved to avoid US sanctions on China. ):
“We seek to buy 50 to 100 plane [from the US] and other high-tech items, “he said, noting that he will also” golf will play “,” if it’s good. ” [national] Interests. ” He also has another possible “gift”. It is reported that the victory wants to invest in the casino, according to diplomats. If so, it can be key.
However, the problem of Vietnam, like every other nation, is that victory is now so capricious that no one knows what is really guaranteed by security. In the conditions of traders, the transaction is impossible for the long run in the long run for governments and investors.
Thus, there is also a growing temptation to slip “bow down to the prince” strategy, then go to your own way, to refrigerate the Buchavar’s saying, which once (in) was known for sale of silk roads. In other words, tribes that improve your bets.
Indeed, this is probably the only reasonable thing for the majority of countries, according to the World Capital placement project (HIGHANITY ECONOMIC ENERGY SITE It is full of accommodations that show which countries are more vulnerable to American and Chinese hegemony force). These records are very important for diversification for diversification if countries will increase the “economic security” in the capricious world.
This hedging trend has consequences. One is that the trade between the United States countries is swollen, Increased global trade volumes regardless of the trump card. Another supply networks are become longerpossible costs possible. And a third is that the targets of Chinese influence are stealthily spreading to remote Pacific Beaches, as Beijing almost seems to seem more predictable, globalistic strength.
Surprisingly, this flies against the announced desire of Trump to click Beijing’s wings. Indeed, future historians can label its entire strategy as self-confidence. But right now the president seems to be convinced that his levers are relied in an unpredictable and imperial form.
Perhaps he will eventually realize that this tactic is also needed to need a fence, because no one can “buy” peace – or trust in America. But don’t write on it. At the same time, expect that performance tribe to pour into fake smiles.
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