Russian-affiliated ships are suspected of wreaking havoc in the Baltic Sea. Some say this could be just the beginning

Finland says it has discovered more than two dozen serious deficiencies on the Russian oil tanker Eagle S, which is accused of deliberately dragging its anchor in the Baltic Sea on December 25, damaging an underwater power line and four telecommunications cables. .

Finnish police said on Tuesday that they found the anchor at the bottom of the sea. It was found along the route of Eagle S Company. Finnish officials believe the submarine cables running between Finland and Estonia are reinforced with steel and several layers of protective insulation. torn apart by a powerful external force.

The vessel is owned by United Arab Emirates-based Caravella LLC FZ, and eight crew members are currently under investigation.

It is suspected to be part of Russia “shadow fleet”A ship used by Moscow to evade sanctions against Russian oil was seized by Finnish authorities as part of a criminal investigation. The country’s public transport agency reported on this the ship is prohibited 32 reruns until the issue is resolved.

Edward Hunter Christie, a senior fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told CBC News: “At least it won’t float for a long time. And I think that’s a smart move.”

The incident involving the Eagle S is the third incident of damage to critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea in a month. One maritime risk expert says this points to a dangerous precedent that can be predicted with the rise in suspicious behavior by Russian-linked vessels in the region.

3 cases of suspected sabotage

Repairs to the 170-kilometer Estlink 2 power line are expected to take up to seven months, and electricity prices may rise in Estonia during the winter. The country has sent a patrol vessel to protect Estlink1, another underwater power link in the Gulf of Finland.

Amid the suspected provocation, NATO has vowed to boost its presence in the region and the UK has launched a new warning system that uses artificial intelligence to track and warn of potential maritime threats.

Hunter Christie said when he worked for NATO before 2020 that there was discussion about whether underwater infrastructure could be targeted, but that the talks were theoretical.

He says that Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2022 changed that.

“I don’t think many serious people doubt that this was ordered by the Russian government,” Hunter Christie said. “Official statements can be somewhat cautious. But I think nobody doubts the nature of this event behind closed doors.”

Moscow said that the seizure of the Eagle S is not a Russian issue. But on December 27, Russian deputy Alexander Kazakov said in the program of the state media that “Russia’s goal is to liberate the Baltic Sea.”

Although he did not specifically say that Russia was behind the cable damage, he told the program that it was in response to actions taken by Ukraine and its Western allies.

“We are inciting them to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea … so we have something to respond to.”

Hunter Christie believes that Finland put the ship down with the flag under the ship Cook Islands — Sends a strong message to Russia because it means one less ship to carry its oil.

“Suddenly, what seemed like a cheap stunt as a relatively inexpensive way to inflict a lot of damage and intimidation on two countries can turn into a much more expensive proposition.”

November events

Five weeks before the Christmas Day incident, two undersea fiber optic cables were damaged in the Baltic Sea.

On November 17, a 218 km long internet cable between Lithuania and the Swedish island of Gotland was damaged. The next day, a 1,200 km long cable connecting Helsinki, the capital of Finland, and the port of Rostock, Germany, was cut.

At the time, suspicions centered around the Chinese cargo carrier Yi Peng 3carrying Russian fertilizer.

After a month-long diplomatic standoff, China allowed investigators from Germany, Sweden, Finland and Denmark to board the ship. But Swedish officials later said China had ignored a government prosecutor’s request to conduct a preliminary investigation on the ship.

Yi Peng 3, which anchored in the Kattegat Sea between Denmark and Sweden’s western coast for weeks, left the area on December 21 and went to Egypt.

“I think what we’re seeing is the Russians and the Chinese are starting to use what I call gray zone activities,” said Ami Daniel, co-founder and CEO of naval intelligence firm Windward. Windward maps underwater infrastructure, tracks vessels and uses artificial intelligence to analyze vessel behavior and assess risk.

“I think we’re entering a whole new world of commercial shipping activity that has been used over and over again to damage national infrastructure worldwide.”

Taiwan said it suspected a Chinese-manned vessel had damaged an undersea cable last weekend. A director of the Hong Kong-registered company that owns the ship told Reuters there was no evidence of this.

“Cat and Mouse Game”

Daniel says his company is causing the November events followed the growth of activity Shadow tankers increasingly turning off their transmitters, hiding their locations and disappearing from radar systems in the Baltic Sea.

According to Windward, 116 vessels blacked out during the week of Nov. 7, a 44 percent increase over what was expected in the area.

Daniel said the public should view what happened as a “cat and mouse” game, with response after incident.

The UK announced on January 6 that it was launching a warning system called Nordic Warden. Joint Expeditionary ForceIt consists of 10 countries. The system will use artificial intelligence to monitor potential threats in 22 areas, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel. If there is a potential threat to infrastructure, allies will be alerted.

Helsinki will host a summit of Baltic Sea NATO leaders next week, but Daniel says the main complicating factor in protecting the infrastructure is that it crosses vast international waters – and it’s not entirely clear which agencies are responsible for protecting it.

Estonian government will apply By February, the International Maritime Organization had called on the country to update its maritime law, which it said did not deal with underwater damage or cover what would happen if a ship deliberately dragged its anchor through critical infrastructure.

Estonia argues that modernizing the law will minimize the risk of such cases being settled through international courts.

Daniel believes that European countries were “100 percent caught off guard” by the events in the Baltic Sea.

“I think that Russia and probably China are going after the most difficult place for Western democracies to defend.”