Putin’s mindset: What kind of team Trump can expect from Moscow when discussing Russia-Ukraine war options
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last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov The newly elected President of the United States has rejected the proposal from Donald Trump’s team to resolve the Ukraine conflict, which will cross the four-year border next February.
“Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals put forward on behalf of the representatives of the elected president’s team regarding the postponement of Ukraine’s membership in NATO for a period of 20 years, as well as the inclusion of a peacekeeping contingent of British and European forces in Ukraine,” – Lavrov, the official news agency of the Russian government. He told TASS in an interview.
Lavrov’s statement probably indicates the aggressive position that Russian President Vladimir Putin will take on Ukraine with Trump. Dealing with Putin will be nearly impossible, even for a strong negotiator like Trump. Here’s why.
During his annual press conference last month, Putin ruled out a peace deal with the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Answering the journalist’s question about whether he has any preconditions for starting negotiations on Ukraine, Putin denied that there are any preconditions. However, while clarifying his answer, Putin said that Russia will sign “documents” “only with representatives of legitimate authorities”.
PUTIN’S ‘FOG OF WAR’ PLAN CONFUSES EXPERTS, BUT THIS IS HIS PLAN
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual press conference and telephone call on December 19, 2024 in Moscow. (Reuters/Maksim Shemetov)
He claimed that Zelenskiy and his government were “illegal” and explained that “there are no provisions in the Constitution of Ukraine regarding the extension of presidential powers even during wartime.” Zelensky’s term of office actually ended on May 20. “You know, if someone participates in the election and gains legitimacy, we will talk to anyone, including Zelensky,” Putin added.
Putin, who is a lawyer by profession, claimed that only the Verkhovna Rada is a unicameral parliament. Ukraine and its chairman, Ruslan Stefanchuk, were “legitimate” because the Ukrainian constitution allows the extension of the powers of the Rada during wartime. However, the Rada and its chairman are “completely under the regime’s control,” he argued, likely referring to the fact that Zelensky’s Servant of the People party controls a majority in the body after the 2019 parliamentary elections. Putin claims that the illegitimacy of Zelensky, who is technically superior to Stefanchuk, makes the Rada and its decisions illegitimate.
Putin ruled out a ceasefire during the press conference. Referring to Trump and his retired Russia-Ukraine envoy, the Russian journalist asked whether it was “possible” to “just get a ceasefire” and “cease the war” at any time. Lt. Gen. Keith Kelloggas he said, he talked about ending the war before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Fellow soldiers carry the coffin of 48-year-old Petro Velikin, who was killed in battle with Russian troops in Russia’s Kursk region, during a farewell ceremony at the Music and Drama Theater in Chernihiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Dan Bashakov)
Putin replied: “Stopping (combat operations) for a week means giving the opponent an opportunity to consolidate his positions. To give him the opportunity to rest, buy the necessary military equipment, ammunition…” Then Putin claimed that “for a relatively long time a continued ceasefire will allow the enemy to train and retrain,” and argued that he was in favor of maintaining momentum while Russian forces were on the move. running out of “weapon systems, munitions, ammunition and, most importantly, personnel of the Ukrainian army.”
Putin is confident that he can hold out until Ukraine capitulates or a deal is reached on Russia’s terms, which would be unacceptable to Washington and even more likely to Trump’s team. Putin wants to retain 20% of Ukraine’s territory, plus Crimea, to turn Ukraine into a neutral state with no path to NATO membership, to lift US and Western sanctions against Russia, and to retain legal guarantees for the territories annexed by the West to be recognized as Russia.
Putin is confident that he can drive a hard bargain even with Trump. In terms of combat potential – weapons, troops, defense economy and military industrial production capacity – Russia, which the Pentagon itself considers a “close rival” to the US military, has a huge strategic advantage over Ukraine. Russia’s population is three times larger than Ukraine’s, so the labor force also massively favors Moscow.
Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Trump Tower on Friday, September 27, 2024 in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
Putin has been mobilizing additional forces throughout this conflict, including by covert means. Russia has already gathered 15% more forces than at the beginning of the war. In September, Putin issued a decree to further increase the Russian armed forces and add 180,000 soldiers. Currently, the number of the Russian army is 2.38 million people, of which 1.5 million are active military personnel. By adding 11,000 North Korean soldiers to the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, Putin demonstrated that he can recruit personnel from his allies.
Putin mocked Trump’s team even indirectly. The Russian dictator has called Washington to a “high-tech duel of the 21st century” to test US air defense and anti-missile defense systems. Russia’s “Oreshnik” hypersonic missileIt will target Kyiv. “We are ready for such an experiment. But is the other side ready? Let’s conduct such an experiment, such a technological duel and see what happens. I think it would be useful for us and for the American side.”
Putin pointed out that Trump needs to contact him first to start negotiations. Answering the NBC journalist’s question about when Putin will meet with Trump and what concessions he will make considering that he will be a “weaker leader,” Putin said, “First of all, he and I don’t know when. will meet, because I don’t say anything about it, I haven’t talked to him for more than four years.” Putin added that he is “ready” to talk to Trump “whenever he wants”.
In this screen grab from a distribution video released on August 20, 2024, Ukrainian forces fight during military operations in Kursk, Malaya Loknya, Kursk Oblast, Russia. (Featured via Air Assault Brigade/REUTERS)
Denying that he would be in a weaker position, Putin stated that he has a “different point of view” and said, “I believe that Russia has become much stronger in the last two or three years. Why? Because we are really becoming a state. We are not dependent on many.” Before and after his sanctions against Moscow, in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Putin has been shielding the Russian economy from sanctions and reducing its dependence on foreign, especially Western, technology.
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Putin’s measures include the launch of an import substitution program in Russia’s manufacturing industries to stimulate domestic production, de-dollarization of Russia’s sovereign fund and foreign exchange reserves, leadership of BRICS, and an initiative to replace the US dollar with an alternative currency. the main currency of international exchange and the strengthening of economic and military ties with non-Western countries, as well as allies such as the US and India and enemies such as China, Iran and North Korea.
Given that Putin will play hardball, unlike, say, China, and the US has limited leverage with Russia. Team Trump If the master of the “Art of the Deal” is to fulfill his campaign promise to bring peace to Ukraine, he will have to find creative solutions.
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