Norway is assessing its EU options as a second Trump term looms

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The writer directs the Center for the US and Europe at the Brookings Institution

European capitals are looking with some trepidation at Donald Trump’s return on January 20. After all, the US president-elect is known to have less warm and fuzzy feelings about NATO and the EU.

All European capitals. Not so. Consider Oslo, where senior Norwegian politicians like to point out reassuringly that “our bilateral relationship with the US will always be secure.” And they have some great points going for them.

NATO founding member Norway and its eyes and ears In the Arctic, the Russian submarine fleet based on the Kola Peninsula is the guardian of the North Atlantic exit route. It plans to exceed NATO’s defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2025, and the long-term defense plan will almost double the defense budget by 2036; The Civil Defense Booklet tells citizens how to collect for emergencies, including war supporter Ukraine. 52 percent of Norway’s $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund is invested in North America.It even has a trade deficit With America. These are all things the president-elect likes.

Ask around in Oslo, however, and concerns quickly emerge. Trump’s enthusiasm for tariffs is a particular source of concern because Norway Not a member of the EU. “If the US imposes tariffs on Europe, and the EU responds with counter-tariffs, we will be hit twice,” sighs the official.

Security concerns also abound. Russia and China are muscling into the Arctic. They are particularly interested in the Svalbard archipelago, but under a century-old international treaty allowing other countries to use the resources and conduct research reduce the role of the US In NATO, Oslo would feel much more vulnerable to pressure from Moscow and Beijing.What if Russian President Vladimir Putin, in return for a cease-fire in Ukraine, demanded US support for fixing the European security order, say an expanded Russian-Chinese base in Svalbard?

Could all this make the EU appear in a new light?Norway said no to joining the European Economic Area (EEA) in two referendums in 1972 and 1994. A poll in November still showed that only 34.9 percent of Norwegians said their country should join, compared to 46.7 percent against, down from more than 70 percent in 2016 compared to

Policymakers in Oslo point to the EU’s competitiveness struggles and the rise of the far right, as well as their own domestic obstacles, such as fishing or agricultural interests is that Helsinki is set to get its own NATO land command in 2025, and Stockholm has been named director-general of the alliance’s international civilian in the service, “while we have none.”

Indeed, Norway’s global commitment to diplomacy, international institutions and law, its military seriousness, its generous development aid, its position as one of Europe’s main energy suppliers, are all but over. Separation from Russiaand finally his vast wealth fund would all make him a prime candidate for accelerated EU membership.

So the dilemma of connected and exposed Norway is like a newspaper Aftenposten After Trump’s re-election, it was memorably set to become “the 51st US state like Puerto Rico” or the 28th member state of the EU. Paris and Berlin are barely able to lead, it could not only change the balance of power in Europe, but initiate a resurgence.

Norway is not the only European country to be quietly weighing its options. Iceland’s pro-EU parties won the election neutrality Ireland is not a member of NATO, but it is also tightening its ties with the bloc. but a war in Europe could make joining the eurozone look like extra political insurance.

A skeptical Norwegian banker claims it will take a political “meteor” to change his country’s stance on joining the EU. Given the track record of the first Trump administration, it would be ironic if the 47th president became Europe’s great unifier :