Netanyahu is facing a political crisis over the Gaza ceasefire agreement

Mr. Ben-Gvir has already proven to be an unreliable and problematic coalition partner. Demanding an increase in police pay, he refused to support the government in passing a landmark bill last month. forcing Mr. Netanyahu to leave his hospital bed he voted in the assembly to make sure the bill passed as he recovered from prostate surgery.

Mr. Netanyahu has held frequent and lengthy meetings with Mr. Smotrich in recent days to persuade him to stay in the coalition. After three hours of talks between Mr Smotrich and his party’s lawmakers on Thursday, the party issued an ultimatum, demanding a promise from Mr Netanyahu to immediately resume the war against Hamas after the first six-week ceasefire. Mr. Smotrich remains in the government.

Mr. Netanyahu, meanwhile, stopped short of convening the cabinet to ratify the deal. citing last-minute disputes with Hamas on the details.

Mr. Netanyahu is fighting corruption charges long trial and the risks of public reckoning after the end of the war for military and political failures ahead of a 2023 Hamas offensive. Given the situation, some analysts believe he will prefer to scrap the second phase of the deal if Hamas does not, in order to keep his coalition intact.

“Netanyahu wants to stay in power,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “It makes no sense for him to go to the elections if he cannot win. He wants to lead the government for two more years.”

Mr. Netanyahu was still able to reach an agreement with Mr. Smotrich. Even if the finance minister joins Mr. Ben-Ghir in pulling out of the coalition, Mr. Netanyahu could remain as head of a minority government, at least for a while. Opposition party leaders say they will give Mr. Netanyahu a political safety net for the sake of peace.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based nonpartisan research group, said that in any case, the government could survive until the end of the first phase of the deal.

But Mr Netanyahu may have to decide between his parliamentary majority and his relationship with the incoming administration in Washington, with Trump and Saudi Arabia offering him the opportunity to burnish his legacy.

“I think his mind is already on the next big step,” Mr. Plesner said of Mr. Netanyahu, adding: “If he has to choose between being intimate with the Trump administration, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, he will. For Trump.”

American and Israeli officials said the agreement reached this week is very similar to the proposal President Biden announced last May.