Mike by Dolan
London (Reuters) – What is today in the US and global markets?
Mike Dolani, Editor-broad, financial industry and financial markets
On Monday, Wall Street reserves hoped that the White House hopes that next week he plans to clean the “mutual” tariff campaigns. The rally also helped News with S & P Global’s Flash’s Business’s Business’s study at the S & P GLOBAL’s Complete Corporate Activities Rising from predictions, more calm tariffs. But the results of the hat under the hat were probably less impressive than they seemed.
I will discuss this below and then study why it is not to be so good to reject the debt of the US private sector.
The minute of today’s market
* US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the automotive tariffs soon came soon, as he notes that his threatening debts will not apply on April 2, and that some countries may receive breaks.
* Trump releases an executive order on Monday, announcing that any country buying oil or gas buying from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff for dealing with the United States.
* Atlanta Federal Reserve President Rafael Bostic has announced that he expects more slow progress on inflation in the coming months, thus it only cuts its benchmark at the end of this year.
* India is open to cutting tariffs, more than half of the United States, in the first round of $ 23 billion, and two people are negotiating, saying two state sources.
* The best officials of the Trump administration mistakenly revealed the war plans in a statement that the United States attacked the White House on Monday.
Reality checking about household trust
While S & P Global has shown that the dominance of the US priority service responded much faster than expected US production, which is more vulnerable to tariff campaigns in a surprised press.
Investors will pay attention to the household on Tuesday to see if the conference’s consumer confidence shows us at least eight months in February this month.
As for the seemingly endless “will they”, “Guessing the game on tariffs, President Trump said on Monday that car tariffs soon came soon. But he added that his debts threatening April 2 will not be applied, and some countries may receive breaks.
It was planned for the stock market for the S & P 500 on Monday, over its highest point, which is led by large technologies, including Chip Giant Niidian and Elon Musk Tesila, which enjoyed a 12% increase.
On Tuesday, Wall Street Futures turned the red first thing. But most of this week’s trade is likely to be affected by the end of the first quarter Friday. To the extent that the last shares were short sellers could not be short-term coverage to close the month.
Foreign shares were mixed with 2% decline in Hong Kong, but 0.5% profit for shares with the eurozone zone, as the composition of the Council of Europe’s Institute rose.
The dollar was mainly exposed to yen and yuan.
The treasury has been affected by the Stock Exchange and Positive Business Surveys, as the 10-year yield in the last month has been reached on Tuesday.
Adding to this step was to increase raw prices on a top-whispers of Trump, Venezuela Hum and countries from Atlanta Federal Reserve, which received only one exchange rate from the Sedder this year.
And now I will look at several reasons why Fed can reduce interest rates more than rates and markets are currently waiting.
Reduction of US debts can become a pull, not proud
The rough health of the US domestic and corporate balance sheets is partly responsible for the exceptional flexibility of the US economy in recent years, but the United States can start the risk of recession.
This month of the quarterly statistics of the Federal Statistics of the US Federal Status of Financial Statements highlighted the wealth of increasing assets in households and modest debt of business in late 2024.
But when you remove the impact of the continuous expansion of the Federal Government Mountain Debt, it appears to be a potential outbreak, or so does Morgan Stanley Matthew Hornbach and the brand’s US companies.
Data cutting and dictating, they take into account the subsidiary of the US private sector by 2.4% of the gross domestic product in the last three months of the private sector from the 2008 bank accident.
The last period of the equivalent quarterly debts was in the second quarter of 2023 after the regional banking crisis, but it was much more modest and a much more modest and low-dimensional lever.
Today, Debt Drivers today are all in the non-financial parts of the economy, households, non-financial businesses and state and local governments. And this is the first time that all three passages have lowered the levers in the same quarter.
The catalyst may have been in November to the US election and the return of victory. But is there a good reason to believe that the trend has not improved since the beginning of 2025, taking into account further developments, including the uncertainty of the trade, and the US tariff increases is planned to increase the amount of exchange of exchange.
“We doubt that the tension between the presidential swearing ceremony may restrict any disorders, as evidenced by Conded Capital Market,” said Morgan Stanley.
“Sustainable feedback on the growth of the private sector’s debt can be a challenge for the US economy,” added. “The deactivation of the minimum, stable private sector is not a simbleal economy.”
The Federal Reserve is that the Federal Reserve may be more prepared to facilitate monetary policy than many assumes, and can be ready for market pricing, looking attractive.
Gave
JPMorgan’s team also believes that the probability of further substantive feeding, which long terms can be underestimated, as the bank now sees the ability to fall to the United States over the next 12 months.
JPM strategists question the market’s assumption at the so-called “Trump” at a higher strike prices than the long-sighted “Fed Put”.
In other words, many investors believed that the stock exchange stock exchange on one of the new administration on one of the new administration of one of the new administration will lead to the new administration. But that assumption seems to be a note.
JPM Analysts Reckon Government digs its heels by signaling the inevitable “adjustment phase” of the economy and markets.
“The damage provided as a result of extreme policy can be fed more than in our starting point, especially if the US labor market is weakened,” added. “The path continues to remain narrow with limited place, for mistakes, but Fed strike can be higher than one of the penalties.”
This feedback conversation is the reason why the stock exchange wants to jump, because it is close to the first quarter. After all, many in the market can believe that “put” – and the temptation to buy “immersion” is well bonded in market psychology.
But there are two big problems.
One is that the US justice and corporate debts markets are nowhere to be at high risk of reception at the cost. The distribution of corporate debt with high yield is still very thin for any danger.
The other is the opportunity to “put” two distorted “put” at all.
Table of the day
Misigan University of consumer moods marched in more than two years, suggesting that US households can worry about the instability of the stock exchange on the federal shifts and federal abbreviations. The adequate survey of the Board for this month issued on Tuesday may offer a reality test, with its mood index is already at a low level of eight months.
To view today’s events
US Mart of Consumer Confidence, March Richmond Federal Reserve Business Survey, February New Home Sale, US House of Representatives Prices
* Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler and President of the New York Cedition John Williams talk
* US Treasury sells $ 69 billion to 2 years note
* US Secretary of State Marco Rubions will meet with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fida in Washington
The expressions expressed are the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, according to the principles of trust, are loyal to the integrity, independence and freedom of bias.
(Mike Dolan; editing: Anna Submanki and Ed Osmond)
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