Monitoring dollar, DeepSeek and China’s PMIs
By Jamie McViver
(Reuters) – Look at the coming day in Asian markets.
The Great Week launches in Asia on Monday, the investors are still around a snowstorm on the possible economic agenda of US President Donald Trump, trying to appreciate whether the “US uniqueness” history can lose its gloss.
The dollar fell by 1.8% last week, which has been its worst week since November 2023. If the dollar exchange rate is strengthened, it should not really be surprised. It has reached a maximum of two years at the beginning of this month, and the net “long” position of the hedge fund has been. The largest in nine years.
The shares of the dollar and the United States are closely intertwined due to the huge wave of world capital inflows when investors are making great bets on American artificial intelligence, technology, growth and yield boom.
But if the dollar exchange rate is a sign that the fire of “US uniqueness” begins to blink, Wall Street is also ready for a cold.
S & P 500 last week reached a new peak and NASDAQ approached. The levels of index are historically high, values ​​are delayed, and this week’s risk of great events is expected to meet Fed Policy and Big Tech profit.
Control over American technology is intensifying, as the waves of AI startup called the Chinese “Deepseek” are spread. Deepseek has recently launched a free, open source artificial intelligence model that claims to be at least equal to more level models like CHATGPT at many levels, but it is built in terms of costs.
The early days are, but if this is a decisive light on the huge amount of money spending on AI’s technology companies, Wall Street can fluctuate.
The “official” reports of China’s production and service procurement managers are dominated on Monday for January.
Reuters inquiry shows that the production PMI will be unchanged compared to the previous month, 50.1. On the one hand, it will be the fourth month of expansion in the field in a row. It will also show that there is almost no growth in the second month.
Friday data show that the profit of Chinese state companies has been evaporated last year, increasing by only 0.4% compared to the previous year. The wider range of profits in industrial sector will be published this week, probably on Monday, and it is expected that 2024 was the worst year in decades.
Investors will make their second day’s decision on Friday to increase the interest rate on the Japan Bank. The initial version seemed that it was “Baze’s growth”, but Japanese money markets still retain prices by 25 basic points of tightening, unchanged compared to last Friday. This implies that BoJ’s guide was actually quite neutral, and Japanese stock futures indicate a strong increase in Monday.
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