Lebanon Turns Political Page as Hezbollah Weakens Security

For decades, Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon was ironclad.

Armed group with a large arsenal was more powerful than the country’s national army. It controlled or controlled Lebanon’s most important government institutions, as well as critical infrastructure such as its border with Syria and its commercial port. Almost no important political decision can be taken without its support, and no political party can seriously object to any move made by it or its patron Iran.

But that longstanding status quo has now been shaken – a turnaround for Hezbollah, which has opened a new political chapter in Lebanon.

Fourteen months of fighting against Israel has devastated the once-invulnerable Shiite Muslim group. Rebels overthrew his main ally dictator Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria. Iran is also weakening itself now that it and its allies are being hit hard by Israel.

As power dynamics in the Middle East readjust after more than a year of war and turmoil, Hezbollah is on shakiest ground in years. While the group is still strong – still having thousands of fighters and commanding the allegiance of the country’s Shiite Muslim majority – analysts say one thing is clear: The era of Hezbollah and Iran’s unwavering dominance in Lebanon is over.

“This is a new political reality,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “This new reality will take time to unfold,” he added, “but what we’ve seen so far is enough to show that the tide is turning.”

Those shifting political sands were laid bare Thursday when Lebanon’s parliament elected a new president, overcoming a political gridlock that many critics attributed to Hezbollah’s efforts to block any settlement. Political paralysis has left the country under the leadership of a weak and ineffective caretaker government for more than two years.

Many in Lebanon saw the election on Thursday General Joseph AounThe commander of the Lebanese army, as a decisive step towards bringing stability to the country. It was also seen as a concession by Hezbollah and, some analysts say, an acknowledgment that the group is no longer capable of paralyzing the state.

Since Lebanon’s founding, many factions and sects from the country’s more than a dozen religious groups have vied for power and influence. Its fragile political system is based on agreements between parties and sects, as well as their foreign patrons. Since the 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, this system, which has gone from crisis to crisis, has held the country together.

Over the past three decades, Hezbollah, both a political party and a militant group, has outmaneuvered its domestic enemies and forged strategic alliances to cement its position as the real power that props up the country’s weak and fractured state.

Even as the government struggles to keep the lights on and the water running, Hezbollah has established a vast network of social services, including high-quality health care and free education, for its mostly Shia followers.

But over the past three months, the group has been dealt a series of crushing blows.

His war with Israel destroyed Hezbollah’s biggest weapons, destroying large parts of its arsenal and leaving the country with a multi-billion dollar bill for reconstruction. Its bitter defeat also shattered Hezbollah’s promise to the Lebanese that it could only defend Lebanon against Israel—which served as the group’s official raison d’être.

Last month, the group lost a key land bridge for arms and money, as well as a political ally, when Syrian rebels, whom Hezbollah once fought, overthrew the Assad government.

Iran, Hezbollah’s patron, has also been on the defensive since the ouster of Mr. al-Assad and has faced its own rising tensions with Israel, including a direct confrontation with rocket fire.

Iran’s network of anti-Israel militias known as Iran’s Axis of Resistance – Hezbollah was a key player – fell, taking with it Tehran’s ability to project its power west to the Mediterranean and south to the Arabian Sea.

Without these pillars of support, Hezbollah’s ability to influence Lebanese politics has diminished, even as the group and its allies seek to position themselves as the country’s agenda-setters. Their weakening was evident even before the vote when a Hezbollah-backed presidential candidate withdrew from the race on Wednesday evening.

“Hezbollah’s story has been seriously discredited, its military has been seriously weakened, and I think it will have to pay the price politically,” said Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

Most experts agree that even in its weakened state, Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s most dominant political force. But they say this is not an indication of the group’s dominance, but rather a reflection of the country’s political dysfunction and internal strife. This dysfunction was on full display during Thursday’s parliamentary vote, which often erupted into shouting matches before the vote began.

According to analysts, General Aoun’s election as president on Thursday is the first step in defining a new political map for the country and the region. General Aoun is supported by the United States and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis once fought for influence in Lebanon before being overtaken by Iran and Hezbollah.

In his victory speech, General Aoun pointed to the vision he and his allies shared for a new political era in Lebanon, saying today was “a new phase in Lebanon’s history.”

He called the Arab countries, which were once pushed out of Lebanon by Iran, “brotherly” nations. He spoke of the state’s “right to monopolize the possession of weapons” – a subtle reference to calls for Hezbollah to disarm after a 60-day ceasefire with Israel later this month. And he envisioned a state that could be defended by its own national army without militias like Hezbollah, which had long dragged the country into internal strife and war.

“My promise is to call for the creation of a state – I repeat, a state – that invests in defense strategy and military, controls all borders and implements international resolutions,” General Aoun said.

Still, experts warn that the country is still in the early days of this new political chapter, and that Hezbollah could still make a comeback. The coming months will be filled with critical litmus tests for the group, including whether it can help rebuild large swaths of the country devastated by the war, and whether it will withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, as stipulated in the cease-fire agreement.

Paul Salem, vice president for international affairs at the Near East Institute in Washington, said: “Hezbollah has suffered a stunning blow in terms of its strategic strength and ability to confront Israel.” “But within Lebanon, it remains a very heavily armed group, stronger than any other in the country.”