Lebanese lawmakers will try again to elect a president

Lebanon’s deeply divided parliament will seek to elect a new president on Thursday, potentially ending years of political vacuum and bringing a degree of stability to a country rocked by its bloodiest war in decades.

For more than two years, the small Mediterranean country has been paralyzed by a political blockade and a series of shocks by a weak interim government, including historic economic collapsea destructive War between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group collapse of the Assad regime in neighboring Syria.

Electing a Lebanese president would be the first step in forming a full-fledged government with a mandate to ensure stability in the country. But despite the urgency, it remains unclear whether anyone will be elected at all.

The country’s parliament is divided along sectarian lines and lawmakers have failed in 12 previous votes to elect a new president since October 2022, when Michel Aoun steps down at the end of his six-year term.

Thursday’s vote could be no different. Lebanon is facing diplomatic pressure from the US and other foreign donors, whose post-war financial support depends on the election of the president. But it is unclear whether the main candidate, Joseph Aoun, the US-backed commander of the Lebanese army (and no relation to the former president), will get enough votes to be elected.

“This election marks a key milestone in Lebanon’s much-needed recovery,” said Lina Khatib, a fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “But the reality is that Lebanon’s various political stakeholders are nowhere near the consensus needed to agree on who will be the next president, even at this very critical time.”

“The yields are higher than ever,” Ms Khatib said.

The 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah has left much of the country in ruins, with little money to finance reconstruction. The World Bank believes that the war has been costly $8.5 billion loss alone Lebanon’s security situation also remains unstable, and the resulting government will have to govern the country. a fragile 60-day ceasefire which diplomats hope will become permanent.

For more than two years, Lebanon’s impasse has paralyzed state institutions and exacerbated the country’s already paralyzed economic situation. Hezbollah, the dominant political force in Lebanon, has long been considered by many to be one of the main stumbling blocks in the country. The group thwarted the bid last year by boycotting a vote to elect a top International Monetary Fund official as Lebanon’s president.

But analysts say that Israel lightning strike The one against Hezbollah destroyed the leadership of the group and undermining its image as a behemoth dominating the country could provide the window of opportunity needed to break Lebanon’s political deadlock.

In the run-up to the upcoming elections, Hezbollah is showing some signs of flexibility, although it remains to be seen how the vote will turn out. On Sunday, the group’s top official, Wafiq Safa, signaled that he would not veto Mr. Aoun’s candidacy, as many had feared.

“They figured they were still strong, but they would have to make some concessions,” said Paul Salem, vice president for international affairs at the Near East Institute in Washington. “Now they need massive and large-scale foreign aid, and they need a legitimate state that they can exist in – to protect themselves.”

“The first building block is electing a president,” Mr. Salem said.

The 128 members of the Lebanese Parliament elect the president by secret ballot, a process that has resulted in elections in recent years. A two-thirds majority is required in the first round, a result analysts called Thursday’s challenge. In the next rounds, a simple majority will be enough.

If the president is elected on Thursday, he will appoint a prime minister, who will be tasked with forming a government in consultation with parliament. It is likely to be a long process, and the resulting executive will be left with the all-encompassing task of reviving the crisis-stricken nation.

Speaker of Parliament, Hezbollah’s main ally Nabih Berri said in an interview with local media last week that he is determined to elect a president on Thursday. He vowed to keep the vote open until a candidate is agreed upon.

However, Mr Berry acknowledged that there was still no consensus on who that candidate would be, marking a departure from previous elections where stakeholders usually agreed informally before the vote.

Amid growing uncertainty, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who has become the beleaguered face of the country’s interim government, struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday.

“Today and for the first time since the post of president is vacant, I feel happy,” he said. “God willing, there will be a new president of the republic tomorrow.”