JPMorgan says Trump’s tariffs to send US into recession

Jpmorgan chase & Co. said that he expects the US economy to fall after the possible impact of Trump’s tariffs this year.

“Now we expect real GDP under the weight of the contract, and throughout the year (4Q / 4Q) We are now looking for a real GDP, last year’s post, citing customers.

“The forecasted contraction of economic activity is expected to be removed over rental and over time to eliminate unemployment rate to 5.3%,” Feroli said.

President Donals Trump’s statement on the main tariffs of US commercial partners on Wednesdays, US stocks S & P 500 sent to US stock index in 11 months.Cleaner $ 5.4 trillionMarket value in just two trading sessions to close the week.

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JPMorgan’s forecast appeared next to other changes in other banks, who have been growing for predictions since the tariff announcement. Thursday, Barclays: The plat is hereExpect GDP to ContractualIn 2025, “is in line with the fall.”

This year, CITI ECONOMYISTs cut their prediction this year, only 0.1%, and UBS economists descended 0.4%.

“We expect that the rest of the United States is importing more than 20% on our projected horizon, mainly in the next few districts, imports as a share of GDP. “The force of trade policy implies significant macroeconomic adjustment for 30 trillion economies.”

“STAGFLATIONARY PRODUCTION”

Feroli said that the Federal Reserve will start reducing its benchmark and risk reductions in June to each next meeting, reaching 2.75% to 4.5%.

These reductions will take place, although the end of the year before the year is the key to the current level, 2.8% from the current level.

Read more:Powell says no haste cut because markets continue to blow

“If it is realized, the forecast of our stain will present a dilemma that will make policy makers,” Feroli wrote. “We believe that material weakness in the workforce market ends, in particular, if it leads to a weaker salary increase, thereby does not accept the price of salary.”

Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said: “It feels like you shouldn’t rush” to make adjustments to pace. His comments followed the publication of the last monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whichshowed a strong rentalIn March, next to a small increase in the unemployment rate, reaching 4.2%.

According to the future, investors bet on the full percentage point of betting betting.

This story was originally shown Fortune.com