Is Russia planning a “false flag” attack on Moldova? | Russia-Ukraine war news

Russia accused Moldova of preparing a military operation in the country TransnistriaThe Russian-backed separatist region has sparked concerns among some analysts that it could be a “false flag” attack by Moscow. Moldova.

Russian intelligence said earlier this week that the president of Moldova Maia Sandu was planning a military operation Transnistriabordering Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for a second term as president on Tuesday.

Russia’s foreign ministry claimed on Wednesday that NATO had turned Moldova into a weapons hub for Ukraine, fueling fears that Moscow could justify potential action against its smaller neighbour.

Here’s more on what’s happening with Russia and Moldova and what to expect.

What did Russia claim?

On Monday, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Moldova was planning a military operation in Sandu. Transnistria. Russian intelligence assumed that the military operation could turn into a war.

Sandu’s chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, denied these claims and insisted that there are no plans to enter Transnistria militarily, even though the country claims that it is Moldova’s territory.

Then, on Wednesday, Russia added a new allegation – that US-led NATO has transferred large numbers of weapons to Moldova in recent months. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow believes that these weapons are ultimately intended for Ukraine. He cited Sandu’s pro-Western leanings to bolster his case.

In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly suggested that not only Ukraine, but other countries that have helped him in his war against Moscow, could potentially be treated by the Kremlin as enemies he could attack.

What are ‘false flag’ concerns?

Ever since Russia launched a large-scale intervention in Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has raised the alarm that Moldova could be Moscow’s next target and urged Western leaders to allay Moldovan concerns.

“We managed to open the door to the European Union wide,” he said as Sandu was sworn in for a second term in the capital Chisinau this week. Moldova is an EU candidate country from June 2022 and is waiting for Brussels to officially accept its request to join the group.

According to analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin’s latest accusations may be part of a larger plan to destabilize Moldova and derail its entry into the European Union (EU). The Kremlin, the ISW report warned, could also impose conditions “for a false flag operation in Transnistria.”

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova, a Russian ally, sandwiched between Moldova’s part of the Dniester River and Ukraine. It is located in the west of Romania.

The region separated from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, it held a referendum that restored its independence and called for union with Russia. This referendum was not recognized by Moldova.

In February 2022, Transnistrian leaders appealed to Russia for protection. The appeal came days after the start of the Ukrainian war and was similar to appeals to Russia by pro-Moscow leaders in parts of Ukraine. Crimea 2014and large parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in 2022.

Internationally, Transnistria is recognized as belonging to Moldova, but Europe views the region as occupied by Russia since 2022.

The Transnistrian region is home to Russian troops, as well as Russia’s main weapons depot, the Kobasna ammunition depot.

According to a report published by the Harvard International Review in October, 1,500 Russian soldiers are currently stationed in the separatist region of Moldova.

In what other ways does Russia put pressure on Moldova?

Political: Moldova voted presidential elections last month amid allegations of Russian meddling. However, pro-Western Sandu won 55.33 percent of the vote against former prosecutor general Alexander Stoyanoglou, who is backed by the Russian-leaning Socialist Party.

In a report published earlier this year, London-based think tank Chatham House said the think tank’s research “suggests that Moscow is also targeting Moldova’s public information space with toxic disinformation.”

Moldova’s national security service also alleged that pro-Russian oligarchs in Moldova paid millions of euros to stage anti-government protests and rig elections. They include former Moldovan parliamentarian Ilan Shor, who was convicted in absentia on fraud charges in January.

Energy: Meanwhile, Moldova is facing an energy crisis. Moldova buys about 2 billion cubic meters (71 billion cubic feet) of gas from Russia every year. From 2022, all this gas is sent to Transnistria.

Transnistria then sells electricity from Russian gas to Moldova.

However, this gas comes through the pipeline through the territory of Ukraine. Kyiv has now decided that it will no longer allow the transit of this gas. Sandu accused Russian gas giant Gazprom of refusing to consider the use of an alternative pipeline and tried to prepare Moldova for a “harsh” winter without Russian gas.

Russia’s gas supply to Moldova is expected to end on January 1, 2025. In early December, Moldova declared a state of emergency due to an expected shortage.

Transnistria then sells electricity to Moldova, fueled by Russian gas.

Violence: In April 2022, explosions took place at the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city of the Transnistrian region. A day later, more explosions destroyed two powerful radio antennas among other facilities in Transnistria.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with other allies of Ukraine, said the bombings were also false flag attacks staged by Russia to make the Transnistrian region appear under attack by Moldova because of Moldova’s support for Ukraine.