‘India won’t have China’s luck’: Aswath Damodaran’s stark warning on global hostility and growth

Because global markets are turned into domestic, politics begins to rewrite economic rules, the history of India’s growth can arise than expected. Assessment expert Aswat Damodara warns that India enters the global environment is much less forgiving than once China, which is navigated.

“India will be much more hostility from the rest of the world, as it tries to grow than China has done itself over the past few decades.

While China has become large enough to maintain growth through its domestic market, the Damodari suggests that India’s aspirations occur when globalization is no longer rising. “Globalization … Now, in my opinion, it is strong and facing pressure,” he said.

He bypasses the transition to the 2008 financial crisis, which he says that the confidence of the scattered society in world institutions and expert systems. That erosion, he claims to resolve the road to the candidate for nationalist parties in Europe, and the prices of nationalist parties in Europe and the presidency of Donald Trump.

The Damodara sees a more infinite approach to the second act of Trump. “He had tariffs as weapons and opened his contempt for global organizations,” he said. While economists worry about long-term losses, the Damodara says that most of the society “delights the trump card”.

The Damodara, known for its assessment of its assessment, is also broken on who won and who lost the globalization era. Among the winners: China, which now includes almost 38% of global GDP growth (2010-2023); Consumers, more choices in lower expenses. and financial markets that became for public policy. Also in the winner. Global institutions, multinational corporations and experts who formulated discourses in such forums like Davos.

But there were simple losses. Japan and Europe lost the economic basis. In developed economies, small business and blue-snake workers passed the heated competition and offshore. “In 1979, the peak reached nearly 20 million, and in 2024 he dropped about 13 million,” he writes about the US experience. He also quotes a wider democratic erosion, where voters, even when they choose a change, saw a policy of “global scenario”.

These shifts for the Damodan are not abstract. They directly affect the company’s assessment. “I have no alternative to evaluate companies today, but the world’s economics and politics that these companies live,” he said.

One company under that lens is Tesla. In 2024, he estimated the shares of $ 182 and bought $ 170. But the last year changed the story. Today, Tesla is a real opponent in China’s BDD, the hybrids are returning, and the main director Elo Mushki, the policing policy of the CEOs affects the perception. “Tesla’s value estimate is about $ 150, less than $ 30 than the previous year my value, and the value of its shares.