India: Why does a nation of 1.45 billion want more children?

“As a demographer, I don’t think states should worry too much about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between the federal and state governments,” says Mr Goli. “My concern lies elsewhere.”

According to demographers, the main problem is India’s rapid aging due to falling birth rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Mr Goli.

This accelerated aging is due to India’s unique success in reducing fertility. In most countries, improved living standards, education and urbanization naturally lower fertility as child survival improves.

But in India, birth rates have fallen rapidly despite modest socioeconomic progress thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that encourage small families through targets, incentives, and incentives.

The unexpected result? Take the state of Andhra Pradesh for example. It has a productivity rate of 1.5, the same as Sweden’s, but per capita income is 28 times lower, Mr Goli says. with increasing debt, external and given limited resources, can such states support high pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?

Consider this. According to a recent United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report, more than 40% of elderly Indians (60 years and above) belong to the poorest wealth quintile – the bottom 20% of the population in terms of wealth distribution. India Aging Report, external.

In other words, says Mr. Goli, “India is getting old before it gets rich.”

Fewer children also means higher old-age dependency rates, leaving fewer caregivers for an expanding elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India’s health care, community centers and nursing homes are ill-prepared for this change.