Has Hezbollah weakened as Lebanon moves toward new governance? | Political news

Beirut, Lebanon – The new president. The new prime minister. And the sense that Hezbollah, the country’s most powerful group, is weakening.

It has been a potentially transformative few weeks in Lebanon, especially when taken in the context of a political system that often seems frozen.

While the events are cause for celebration among many Lebanese, they may raise questions for the entire political class, including Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, a Shiite political group and militia, has dominated Lebanon for the better part of two decades. But it has suffered multiple setbacks in the past few months, including the loss of most of its top members, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, in a war with Israel, followed by the ouster of its staunch ally Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. .

“Hezbollah still has legitimacy,” Lebanese political researcher Ziad Majed told Al Jazeera. “It will have to accept being strong – and it will be strong – the Lebanese party like all the others, but without owning the decision of war and peace.

Hezbollah’s ‘hand has been cut off’

Hezbollah helped Joseph Aun By supporting him in the second round of voting on January 9, you can collect the necessary number of votes to become the president. However, after it became clear that the group that planned to support the current president Najib Mikati in the vote for the prime ministership held on January 13, abstained. Hello NawafThe former president of the International Court of Justice would win.

Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad said the group reached out to the people by voting for Aoun, but Salam’s candidacy was “cut off”.

The Iranian-backed group believes that many of its opponents in the government are taking advantage of losses in Israel’s war against Lebanon.

In his first speech as a candidate for prime minister, Salam promised to unite the Lebanese people and then spoke about issues that deeply affect the Shiite community. Israel’s war against the country. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have largely focused on areas with large Shiite populations, even areas that many locals say lack Hezbollah’s military infrastructure or fighters, including southern Lebanon, much of the Bekaa Valley and so-called areas around Beirut. Genius.

Like Aoun’s speech a few days earlier, Salam said the Israeli army would try to withdraw from “the last inch of occupied (Lebanese) land” and rebuild areas affected by Israel’s destructive attacks.

“Reconstruction is not just a promise, it’s a commitment,” he said.

“He is smart enough to find appropriate ways to try to be inclusive,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think he will try to exclude Shia circles from participating in government and state building, but that is a decision that Shia parties have to make.”

However, Hezbollah is in a precarious position. For years, Hezbollah and its allies have had enough political and military clout to block decisions they oppose as government entities that do not meet their needs. In one of the most famous examples of the group’s power, in May 2008, after the Lebanese government ordered the dismantling of the group’s private telecommunications network, Hezbollah deployed fighters on the streets of Beirut, forcing the government to retreat.

But The fall of the Assad regime in Syria made it difficult to buy weapons and eliminated the group’s main regional ally.

Monopoly on guns

According to the terms of the cease-fire with Israel, Hezbollah must move from the north of the Litani River, which runs through southern Lebanon, to the north of Sur in the west, to the south of Marjayoun in the east, and the Lebanese army will be deployed in the south. Lebanon after the Israelis left the area.

Hezbollah has said its military infrastructure should be removed only from the south, but Israel has recently attacked targets north of Litani, which it says are linked to Hezbollah. However, some officials in Israel and the United States, and even in Lebanon, have said that Hezbollah’s military infrastructure should be targeted anywhere in Lebanon. This raises questions about whether all parties have the same understanding of a ceasefire.

Aoun and Salam have talked about both states having a monopoly on weapons and deploying them to southern Lebanon, a clear message to Hezbollah that its military dominance may be coming to an end.

Whether Hezbollah will accept it or not is a separate matter. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem warned on Saturday that Hezbollah should be included in the next government.

“(No one can exclude us from effective and influential political participation in Lebanon) because we are a key component of the country’s structure and its renaissance,” Qassem said, adding that no force “can take advantage of the results of internal operations.” (Israeli) aggression, because the political path is different from the resistance (Hezbollah) situation.”

Lebanon’s new leaders have vowed to pull Israel out of every inch of Lebanon and rebuild destroyed homes and villages in what analysts say is an attempt to reach out to the Shiite community.

Hezbollah is under pressure from constituencies in the south, the Bekaa Valley and Dahiya to rebuild their homes and lives. Analysts said that Lebanon will need international assistance for this. This may lead Hezbollah to adopt a new political direction for Lebanon for the time being.

“Either (Hezbollah) will allow its reconstruction to take place in a way that is state-run and has enough legitimacy from (Arab) Gulf donors who are willing to invest their money, or it won’t happen,” said Nadim Houri, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative. they said.

And there are signs that, despite the rhetoric of some, Hezbollah may be open to a more conciliatory path, at least in the short term.

“What is important is rebuilding state institutions, achieving political, financial and economic reforms, implementing the ceasefire agreement and monitoring the implementation of the Taif agreement,” Qassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, said, citing Al Jazeera. A 1989 pact designed to end Lebanon’s 15-year civil war. “The issue of fighting the enemy of Israel is one of the priorities.”

Hello new hope

Aoun and Salam’s partnership marks a departure from traditional political power blocs in Lebanon, as well as the billionaire prime ministerial profile of some of Salam’s predecessors, including Saad Hariri and current prime minister Mikati.

Many Lebanese said Salam’s appointment as prime minister in particular was a boon for the country and its hopes for reform.

“I am very hopeful,” said Lebanese journalist and writer Dalal Mawad, who considers Salam a mentor. “He embodies the justice, accountability and rule of law we want to see in Lebanon.”

“What we can say is that Nawaf Salam’s candidacy definitely bodes well for the future of Lebanon,” Bitar said. “Most Lebanese are optimistic for the first time in decades, or at least for the first time since 2019.”

Salam’s name was first floated for prime minister shortly after mass protests began on October 17, 2019. Despite being from a prominent political family, he is known as one whose relatives include former prime ministers Saeb Salam and Tammam. Hello – it is beyond the traditional political oligarchy.

In his first speech as a candidate for prime minister, Salam talked about building a “modern, civilized and fair state”.

He also spoke of achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunity”.

He spoke about justice for victims of the August 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion and the 2019 banking crisis, when depositors were suddenly denied access to their money and no officials or banks were held accountable.

Lebanese media said on Tuesday that an investigation into the derailed blast by Lebanese political groups, including Hezbollah, would soon resume.

Fight ahead

Although many focus on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon’s most powerful parties have used the system to avoid accountability or block political agendas they oppose.

The next challenge for Aoun and Salam will be to deliver their message while facing a political system built on sectarianism.

Lebanon’s sectarian system “requires new approaches,” Majed said, adding that Lebanon needs a monopoly on violence by state institutions and weapons, and a “strategy to defend Lebanon from real Israeli hostility.”

Due to the current sectarian system, Lebanon is ruled by a few political parties and leaders with deep-seated support and control over state institutions. These leaders, who span Lebanon’s religious sects, are accused of using these resources and political power to build their own patronage networks, holding the people accountable to them rather than the state.

These powers have been entrenched in their positions and resistant to change.

Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut and Salam’s former colleague, told Al Jazeera: “We need to make fundamental, structural reforms in the political system in Lebanon, and I don’t know if that’s possible.”

The appointment of strong or new leaders to positions of power is not all that is needed to root out deep-rooted corruption and cronyism. Hi, for example, is not the first technocrat to take a prominent role in Lebanon.

“The difference is that in the past technocrats came to power when the political class wanted to procrastinate,” Khouri said. “They were never brought in with any legitimacy that depended on the political class, so they didn’t have the capacity or support to implement many of their reforms.”

But the myriad crises in Lebanon today mean that the political class understands that it must allow some reforms, even if it opposes systemic change.

Salam and Aoun will have to address issues of economic stability, security and national dialogue while managing foreign relations, including Israeli aggression, without isolating any community. The series of issues to be resolved is long and arduous.

However, analysts said Salam and Aoun have unique opportunities. The fall of the Assad regime, which has been constantly meddling in Lebanon’s affairs, the weakening of Iran, and the willingness of the international community to provide foreign aid and support for Lebanon’s new leaders show unprecedented support for the reform agenda. there.

Even with favorable conditions, confronting the deeply entrenched and entrenched Lebanese political class will still be a back-breaking endeavor. Many analysts said that despite their positive views on Salam’s appointment, they were skeptical that anyone would be able to uproot Lebanon’s political system.

Still, Khashan said Salam is “the right man for the times.”