Hamas after the ceasefire: A weakened but still dominant Palestinian power in Gaza

Rearming will likely be more difficult for Hamas, which has already used up most of its weapons and has no easy way to restock them, especially given that its signature foreign backers are so weakened.

But if Israel decides to return to war, it could continue to weaken the group by removing its new commanders and targeting what remains of its government.

Tamer Garmout, a professor of public policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, could see Israel moving toward an occupation of Gaza under such a scenario, which “could cut everyone off, but make everyone publically hostile.”

Some former Israeli security officials have argued that the deal leaves Hamas in a stable position regardless of Israel’s return to war.

“Hamas scored a lot of points with this deal,” said Michael Milstein, a former military intelligence analyst who specializes in Palestinian affairs. “They wrote into the agreement the two things they always demanded: an end to the fighting and an Israeli withdrawal.”

And if Israel restarts the conflict, it will enter a “war of attrition with no light at the end of the tunnel,” Mr. Milstein said. “Hamas is ready to drag Israel back into the mud of Gaza.”

Still, Hamas will have to make some concessions if it wants enough aid to rebuild Gaza to flood into the territory. Until now, Hamas leaders they said they were ready Relinquishing civilian rule in Gaza, but not dismantling its military wing, would be a dynamic similar to Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon, analysts say.

“I think everyone, including Hamas, understands that solving the people’s problems requires Hamas to stay out of the spotlight,” Mr. Garmout said, adding that he would have to reach an agreement with the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority to share power.

Although Hamas supporters have acknowledged that the October 2023 attack caused great suffering for Palestinians, they have refused to express regret for the attack, which killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians. They highlighted how Israel’s bombing of Gaza has increased global interest in the Palestinian issue and undermined Israel’s reputation.

Saudi Arabia, which came close to severing diplomatic ties with Israel before the war, presented Palestinian statehood as a precondition for an agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The state is accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice. Israel strongly denies both accusations, but its international reputation has been tarnished like never before.

“Before the war, no one was following what was happening in Palestine,” said Fouad Khuffash, an analyst close to Hamas based in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. “Everybody’s watching now,” he said.

In a speech on Wednesday, Hamas chief negotiator Khalil al-Haya called the October attack a “military achievement” that will remain “a source of pride for our people.”

For many civilians, the future of both Israel and Hamas in the picture is bleak.

“We are talking about a people caught between a state willing to act with complete brutality and a group willing to provoke that state to act with brutality,” said Akram Atallah, a Palestinian columnist from Gaza.

Patrick Kingsley and Aaron Boxerman helped report this article.