German selection: What you need to watch

The Germans vote for the new Trump leadership, which threatened European countries, which are threatening European countries, and in Ukraine, and in addition to an authoritarian voting elections, which is a rare voting elections.

The parliament was called to elect the parliamentary after the collapse of the three-part parties, which was unpopular and a long-term party government in November in November. Earlier than the planned seven months ago, the voting is now in the middle of Europe’s struggle for strong leadership and recalculates relations with the United States.

Despite the efforts of politicians and countless volunteers to bring excitement to the race during a short, dark winter campaign, the surveys will never change. Friedrich Merz and the Conservative Christian Democratic Union has a comfortable lead.

Germany is expected to take second place with the fear of a hard-time alternative or afd, the terror of the second parties and migration. Surveys indicate that this will be best.

Mr. Scholz, who was equipped with a victory in 2021, is expected to be ahead of the third and herbs. The Social Democratic Party, the oldest party of Germany, can be shown worst than the Nazis.

But there are many uncertainties. Here are some things to watch:

Two companies, three crowds

No party is expected to take enough votes to manage alone and open. The most important question will then be where you need a few party to create a government.

Together, Mr. Merz is the most likely to be the most widespread Christian Democrats of Christian Democrats and Remote AFD. However, because AFD was stained by Neo-Nazi circles, Mr. Merz and all major field leaders say they will not organize the government with him. Instead, they will join the “firewall” in order to protect extremists from force.

This is a very likely partner of Mr. Merz, even if they are left from the center, they leave the Social Democrats. If they do not have enough support to create the majority of them, there will be a third party.

The experience of the existing government showed how difficult and unstable is that the three-sided group can be. Almost many analysts will almost leave Germany almost when the last three parties collapsed.

Little king

The small parties are how small and at least 5 percent of the need for 5 percent need to enter parliament, they need to receive or want to want.

If the voting is correct, the smaller die Linke Party, on the left, is likely to do it. Surveys show that since one of the most popular members of the period last year, Sahra Wagenknecht was broken to form a party.

This Sahra Wagenknecht AllianceOr BSW, as it is called a new party, runs on the national level for the first time. His prospects are uncertain.

Another aspect of hovering near the target is a free democratic partying in business. Leader, Christian LindistiChancellor Scholz, who collapsed on Sunday’s election, is a man who carries the Chancellor Scholz. He will test the voting for him, whether this gambit was paid to the party.

For all these parties, the parliament is an existential question to clear the barrier to access; In parliament, they appear in the seat, less and get less funded.

But if all turns it into parliament, it makes life difficult for bigger parties, reduces the number of seat and is likely to deny the chances for a two-way coalition.

Will ‘Firewall’ catch?

If AFD is even stronger than expected – a useless effort to work around 20 percent – and enhances the questions about which the main flow can last.

In Europe, nationalist, immigrant parties are considered one of the more extremes of AFD. The parts of AFD are closely monitored by German internal intelligence agencies, which have a potential for most bodies and constitution. Party members were toys with reviving Nazi slogans, horrified by the Holocaust and associated with places to overthrow the government.

However, the party was adopted by Trump Management officials. This month, during the Munich Security Conference, the vice-president called on JD Vance to stop marginalizing the parties to the Germans, said: “No space for the firewall” And Alice Weidel met with Afd Chancellor Candidate.

The billionaire’s Trump Advisor Elon Musk interviewed Ms. Weidel on the social media platform and confirmed him with a video link before gathering at a rally, and “in the most focus of the former sin.”

The power of the Power of AFD can only call for the German policy, but also for European political trends, for political trends of Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk may be judged by the party’s legitimization of these approval from the party and a more charm or potential, potentially or potentially giving new antagonistic relations with Germany and Europe.

When do we know?

The surveys will arrive at the first time after the closure of Sunday morning in Baku (Noon Est) in Baku (USA EST). According to the extensive exit election, these numbers tend to be very accurate. During the last election period, exit surveys were 1 percent of the last votes, which were counted for several votes.

However, this year, access to the sketch can be less predicted. An unusual number of voters, the voters still do not use their minds and are increasingly growing voters, and they do not understand in exit polling stations.

Most Germans will cling to their television near the voting. Cant wait for pictures from different party headquarters, everyone hugs around the candidates – depending on champagne flapers or the party, depending on the party, these first results are waiting.