Does coming first in Nadal guarantee the Premiership title?

ByAdmin
Rate this post


What does that mean for next season and how often do teams in those positions stay there when May rolls around? Let’s break it down.

Does being Top at Christmas guarantee the title?

Historically, being the best on Christmas Day offers a mixed outlook.

In 16 of the 32 Premier League seasons, the team currently leading the table has lifted the trophy, with a success rate of 50%.

Liverpool, however, has a less encouraging record. This is the seventh time they have been top on 25 December, but they have only managed to turn one of those leads into a title, in the 2019-20 season.

In fact, Liverpool have topped the table at Christmas more than any other English club in history, achieving the feat 21 times and winning the league on 11 of those occasions.

Recent history shows the unpredictability of leading up to Christmas. Arsenal, for example, topped the table last season for the fourth time in the Premier League era, but failed to lift the title, as they had done in their previous three attempts.

Conversely, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City have won the title each time they led on Christmas Day.

Interestingly, teams outside the top four at Nadal have occasionally stepped up to claim the title.

This has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City climbed from fifth, six points behind Arsenal, to claim their fourth consecutive championship.

Who is in the European points?

The current top four consists of Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and a surprise contender: Nottingham Forest.

Fifth-placed Bournemouth could even sneak into the Champions League conversation depending on how other English clubs approach European competitions.

Aston Villa and Manchester City are in sixth and seventh respectively, which could be Europa League and Conference League places depending on the winners of the domestic cups.

It’s worth noting that last season’s Christmas top seven saw significant movement at the end of the campaign. Only West Ham (sixth at the time) dropped out, while Chelsea rose from 10th to finish in the top seven.

Relegation: Who’s in trouble?

At the other end of the table, Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton occupy the relegation zone.

Southampton’s position looks particularly dire as they find themselves eight points adrift at the bottom. Wolves and Southampton have both recently appointed new managers in an attempt to turn their fortunes around.

It’s rare for the same three teams in the relegation zone at Christmas to remain there in May, but it happens.

Last season, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United stayed in the bottom three from Christmas to the last day.

This has only happened in four other Premier League seasons:

  • 2001-02: Derby, Leicester, Ipswich
  • 2012-13: Wigan, QPR, Reading
  • 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United

Being at the end of Christmas offers little hope, with only four teams out of 32 escaping relegation in this scenario. Exceptions include West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15) and Wolves (2022-23).

Interestingly, two clubs from the Premier League era have been in the top 10 at Christmas but still suffered relegation: Norwich City (seventh in 1994-95) and Blackpool (10th in 2010-11).

For context, seventh-placed Manchester City are unlikely to follow suit.

What lies ahead?

As the league enters the second half of the season, Liverpool’s chances of turning their Christmas lead into a title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.

With European football on the horizon for a number of teams and a relegation battle heating up, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the coming months.



 
Report

Similar Posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *