China’s shrinking population poses challenges for its economy. The reason for this – National
China’s population shrank for the third year in a row last year, its government said on Friday, pointing to future demographic challenges for the world’s second-most populous country, which is currently facing both an aging population and a shortage of working-age people.
By the end of 2024, China’s population will be 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million compared to the previous year.
The figures released by the government in Beijing follow trends around the world, but particularly in East Asia, where birth rates are falling in Japan, South Korea and other countries. China three years ago, it joined Japan and most of Eastern Europe among other nations with declining populations.
In many cases, the reasons are similar: Rising living costs are causing young people to delay or forgo marriage and childbearing while pursuing higher education and careers. Although people are living longer, this is not enough to keep up with the rate of new births.
Countries like China, which allow very little immigration, are particularly at risk.
China has long been among the world’s most populous countries, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters to sustain a population that thrives on rice in the south and wheat in the north. Even after the end of World War II and the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, tens of millions of people died in the Great Leap Forward, which attempted to revolutionize agriculture and industry, and in just 30 years, large families re-emerged and the population doubled. the Cultural Revolution that took place a few years later.
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After the end of the Cultural Revolution and the death of leader Mao Zedong, communist bureaucrats became concerned that the country’s population was outgrowing its ability to feed itself and implemented a strict “one-child policy.” Although never a law, women had to apply for permission to have children, and those who violated the law could face forced late-term abortions and birth control procedures, hefty fines, and the possibility of having their child’s ID number revoked. .
Rural China, where male preference is particularly strong and where two children are still allowed, has become the focus of government efforts, with women being forced to prove they are menstruating and buildings decorated with the slogan “have fewer children, be better”. children.”
The government tried to abolish selective abortion of female children, but with abortions legal and readily available, operators of illegal ultrasound machines enjoyed a booming business.
This has been the biggest factor in skewing China’s sex ratio, with millions of boys born for every 100 girls, raising the possibility of social instability among China’s army of bachelors. Friday’s report put the gender imbalance at 104.34 men for every 100 women, although independent groups put the imbalance significantly higher.
Of greater concern to the government was the sharp decline in the birth rate, with China’s total population declining for the first time in decades in 2023, and China narrowly surpassing India as the world’s most populous country in the same year. A rapidly aging population, shrinking workforce, lack of consumer markets and out-migration are putting the system under severe pressure.
While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China’s already weak social security system is faltering, and a growing number of Chinese are refusing to pay into an underfunded pension system.
More than a fifth of the population is now aged 60 or over, with the official figure at 310.3 million, or 22% of the total population. By 2035, this figure is predicted to exceed 30%, leading to discussions of changes to the official retirement age, which is one of the lowest in the world. Due to the lack of students, some empty schools and kindergartens become care facilities for the elderly.
Such developments lend some credence to the aphorism that China, now the world’s second-largest economy but facing major headwinds, will “get old without getting rich.”
Government incentives, including cash payments for having up to three children and financial assistance with housing costs, have had only a temporary effect.
At the same time, China continued its transition to an urban society, with 10 million more people moving to cities, with an urbanization rate of 67%, almost one percentage point higher than the previous year.
© 2025 The Canadian Press
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