China’s December imports posted a surprise jump, while exports beat expectations

China’s exports and imports beat expectations by a wide margin in December, data from the country’s customs body showed on Monday as exporters continued to front-load ahead of expected tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump.

China’s exports rose 10.7% in December from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 7.3% rise in a Reuters poll. This compares with an increase of 6.7% in November and 12.7% in October.

Customs data showed imports rose 1.0% last month from a year ago, reversing a contraction in the previous two months.

Analysts had predicted that imports would decrease by 1.5% annually. This is compared to a a larger decline of 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October.

Last year, China’s total exports, denominated in yuan, rose 7.1% from a year earlier, accelerating from mid-2019. A modest increase of 0.6% in 2023customs officials said at a press conference on Monday.

Last year, China’s imports increased by 2.3% A decrease of 0.3% in 2023.

A prolonged real estate crisis has hit domestic demand, forcing the country to rely more on exports to fuel its growth.

Economists expect trade to occur It has significantly supported China’s economic growth last year. GDP data is due later this week.

Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid rising trade tensions with key trading partners — the United States, the European Union — but that growth could be in jeopardy once Trump returns to the White House.

Export of electric vehicles and semiconductors increased by 13.1% and 18.7% respectively last yearaccording to customs officials.

Trump, who will be inaugurated on January 20, has raised fears about high tariffs on Chinese exports. He has promised additional 10% tariffs to all Chinese goods entering the United States

Chinese authorities have stepped up policy support since late September to support the country’s economy as growth rates and social tensions rise. Gabriel Wildau, Teneo’s managing director, said in a note last Friday that “a balance of caution and restraint remains.”

It is in China reduce policy ratesrelaxed restrictions on the purchase of propertyinjected liquidity into the financial market, as well as opening of the debt swap program to ease the financial strain on local governments.

“While senior leaders recognize the need to increase real GDP growth, Xi remains reluctant to accept the additional stimulus required to combat deflation,” Wildau added.

“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry for a broad-based response if the impact of tariffs is severe,” he said, adding that uncertainty over export growth gave Beijing an added reason to avoid a “big bang (stimulus) approach.”

Among other key economic data this week, China is set to release full-year and fourth-quarter GDP figures on Friday. According to a Reuters survey, growth in the last quarter of 2024 is set at 5.1% annually.

For this year, the top management promised to strengthen domestic consumption is a priority while expanding fiscal spending to finance consumer goods trade and equipment upgrade policies. It was launched in July last yeartrade program subsidizes consumers trade in old cars or appliances and buy new ones at a discount.

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