China senses an opportunity in Trump’s cultural revolution
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I visited Beijing and Hong Kong in the last two weeks. This visit became clear that in today’s world, the United States is a revolutionary, more accurate, reaction – government, while the communist force is the power of the status quo. In this regard, the EU has a lot in common with China. China’s rulers are like the world and China. The EU is not so dissatisfied. It is aware of his economic and security challenges, his elites know that it should exchange great deeds. But they also prefer the world that US President Donald Trump tries to destroy chaotic, which he tries to create.
In this huge country, a simple conclusion is expressed to make a simple conclusion from a simple conclusion, if not an idiot. However, I have visited the country at least once a year, except during the epidemic, closely monitored the evolution of the country’s economy and caused a number of friends in its Western educated political elite. China’s rise is far away and far from the greatest economic and political history of my life. Heroic or not, you have to try to make sense of what the trumpet is for China and China means the world.
This is what I have learned.
First of all, my Chinese interlocutors thought about today’s US revolutions related to their cultural revolution, which began almost 60 years ago. Mao Zedong used his reputation as a rebel leader to fight the war of China’s bureaucratic and cultural elites. Trump also uses his power as a leader of the rebel movement to overthrow the US bureaucratic and cultural elites. Intensive the cultural revolution is unclear among the current Chinese elite today. They also don’t like Trump Revolution.
Second, many of them who were able to avoid school in the 1980s and became an education at Elite Elite Western universities, they admired the values he saw there and hoped that they were involved in their country. The rule of law, personal freedom and modern science seemed to be excellent ideas. For such people what happens in America now is painful. This regrets is not unique for the betrayal of its US principles for China.
Third, they realize that what is happening with the United States has clear expanses for their own country. It’s about the whole person for the last time the signature of victory is worthless. A man who tries to demolish the Canadian economy is not going to be a reliable friend for anyone. Thus, the US bloc must balance China, or for that issue, it is likely to be very fragile everywhere. This applies even to Japan and South Korea, albeit other neighbors. In this environment, China, the main commercial energy of the Asia-Pacific Ocean, as well as the rapidly growing military force must dominate not only the region, but beyond. Even Europe, which refers to Russia and so openly abandoned by the United States, will try friendly relations with China. Trump’s “America First” is obliged to consider America alone.
Fourth, Deepseek gave the Chinese confidently stimulus. They believe that the United States can no longer block their rise. My good friend explained that Xi Jinping has three purposes: regime stability. growing technology; and a growing economy. They are even more confident today than they were a few years ago. This is not just about Deepseek, but also about the Chinese dominance of “clean energy”. Many believe that China’s demographic challenges are obliged to destroy the economy. But the problem is very little work now, not very little workers. This is a demand for demand, not one of the possible supplies. It will stay for a long time due to excess rural workers.
Fifth, this issue problem is really huge because I argued PastBut it is not unsolvable. In China, it was in the center of attention in my discussions, as there has been long-term issues on relatively short-term issues, such as the weakness of the property, the consequences of these changes in household balance. Falling retail pricesA number of this reminds the economy of the further bubbles of Japan. However, they are really structural, not cyclical, problems. The underlying reality is that, as happened to Japan and South Korea, the ability to invest the huge savings of China (More than 40 percent of GDP) effectively collapsed. Proof of this is a huge leap of Capital’s growth rate. The ratio of investment rate on economic growth rate. (See charts).
During the beginning of this century, the demand hole was partially filled with a large surplus of the current account. Then, when it became impossible, after the financial crisis, the larger hole, which then emerged, was filled with a huge increase in real estate and infrastructure investments. The first is already falling. But making more investments, just guarantees greater quantity and thus protection, which aims to be inevitable Chinese export growth. Thus, Europeans will follow Trump’s example. Really they will do it whereas China’s export subversive in their markets that will follow suit.
Chinese policy makers now refer to “consumption investments.” It is an interesting concept. However, the main requirements are to reduce the level of savings, transporting income to households, developing a social security network and increasing public consumption.
Summing up, the Chinese believe that Trump’s attack can survive. Indeed, many believe that it can help them, destroying the authenticity and perceptions of the US competence. This does not mean that China is sure to win. But, as is usually for the great powers, their biggest challenges are at home, not abroad.
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