Can Trump force NATO allies to spend more on defense?
US President Donald Trump attends a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on December 3, 2019, on the eve of the NATO summit to be held in Watford, the capital of Great Britain.
Kevin Lamarck | Reuters
As US President Donald Trump seeks to immediately fix his biggest political and economic problems, the thorny issue of NATO’s defense spending is likely to return to the global agenda soon.
Trump’s relationship with the Western military alliance has been strained during his first term in office, with the Republican leader often criticizing NATO members for failing to meet a 2014 target of spending at least 2% of GDP annually on defense.
Ahead of his second term, Trump has signaled that the debate over military spending and the notion that Trump’s NATO members rely too much on the United States for their security will resurface, saying NATO’s 32 countries must contribute. more defensively.
“I think NATO should have 5% of GDP (as NATO contribution target),” said in January. “They can all afford it, but they should be 5%, not 2%,” he said at a press conference. he also refused to rule out using military force to seize the Panama Canal or Greenland — the territory belonging to NATO member Denmark.
There has been a broad increase in defense spending among NATO members since Trump was last in office. In 2018, at the height of White House frustration with the military bloc, only six member states even met the 2% GDP target.
On the contrary, According to NATO data, 23 members have reached the 2% target Major economic powers, including Canada, Spain and Italy, are among those below the contribution threshold, although some exceed the threshold, such as Poland, Estonia, the United States, Latvia and Greece.
No NATO member has met Trump’s proposed 5% target, including Washington during his predecessor Joe Biden’s administration.
Polish President Andrzej Duda told CNBC on Wednesday that he fully supported Trump’s call for increased spending within NATO. Europe ‘must’ return to Cold War-era defense spending Defending against the likes of Russia and its expansionist foreign policy.
“If we want to defend against this – and we Poles definitely do – we are spending close to 5% of GDP on defense this year. We are aware that we need to modernize our armed forces, we need to be strong and provide them. It is a real obstacle to deter Russian aggression,” he told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Given its border with war-torn Ukraine, Poland spends the highest percentage of GDP on defense of any other NATO member. NATO 2024 estimates It shows that Warsaw spent 4.12% of its GDP on defense last year.
New leader, old problems?
Mark Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister and now NATO secretary general, is only a few months into his new job, but he has already repeatedly urged member states to increase defense spending.
According to him, his priority is to achieve the goal of 2% of the lagging countries.
“Fortunately, thanks to Trump in his first term, we increased defense spending … but we all have to get to 2%,” he told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday.
Faced with questions about why Dutch defense spending is so far below NATO’s target, Rutte said countries still short of the required target “must reach 2% in the coming months. It should be done this year.” term of office.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte speaks to the media on the first day of the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11, 2023.
Odd Andersen | Getty Images
Rutte said it was impossible to increase defense spending, noting that European countries could afford to cut pensions, health and social security spending or raise taxes to increase defense spending.
“At the end of the day, it’s a rich place, we have incredible wealth in Europe … so in terms of defense spending, we can do this,” he said.
However, domestic spending priorities – as European countries face high food and energy costs – have limited regional governments’ ambitions to increase defense and security funding.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof told CNBC on Wednesday that spending 5% of national GDP on defense is a tall order.
“I think it’s going to be very, very difficult. If we look at the impact of these kinds of increases, it’s almost impossible. I think the defense spending debate should also be discussed and debated from a strategic perspective. (We have to ) decide where we want to be with NATO … and then decide what kind of money we’re going to put in,” CNBC’s Dan Murphy said.
Spending restrictions
Swedish Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson said she had to balance her desire to increase defense spending with the need for economic growth, which is a problem in much of Europe.
“It’s a very strong debate about how much (should be spent on defence), whether it should be 2% or 5% (of GDP). But the question is, from my point of view, what should we do to defend ourselves and a strong NATO to have, but it’s also a matter of growth,” he said.
“I am the finance minister… it depends on growth. We need growth in Europe first, then we need to know what we can do in terms of military spending,” he said.
Sweden, which joined as NATO’s newest member in 2024, announced last year that it plans to increase defense spending to 2.4% of GDP in 2025 and 2.6% of economic output by 2028.
Svantesson said Trump’s perspective on the need to increase NATO defense spending “is fair, because we need to do more in Europe,” but that some member states do not even meet the 2% target and NATO countries are “bigger and bigger than Sweden.” economies” should have done more.
Spain is likely to become the target of Trump’s wrath. European Commission It predicts a 3% expansion for the country’s economy last year, but Spain only allocated 1.28% of its GDP to security in 2024.
The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has maintained Madrid’s recordHe told CNBC in Davos that the country has worked hard to increase defense spending.
“To be sure, Spain is very committed to the 2% of GDP defense spending target, but let me also say that in the last 10 years we have also increased our total defense spending by 70%,” he said. . “If we take these numbers absolutely, we can say that Spain is 10c The largest contributor to NATO.”
English