An underwater volcano off Oregon will erupt this year, scientists predict

This brings BOOM. That, of course, is Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano off Oregon that scientists predict will erupt this year.

The Axial seamount is the most active underwater volcano in the northeast Pacific Ocean, according to the specialist seamount blog. Sit on Juan de Fuca Ridgeabout 300 miles (483 kilometers) west of the Oregon coast. And based on recent observations, the deep-sea volcano is poised to erupt for the first time since 2015. A group of Earth scientists led by William Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University, reported their predictions at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union last month.

Scientists first studied the volcano in the late 1970s, which is known to have erupted three times, in 1998, 2011 and 2015. The key piece of data in predicting a volcanic eruption is knowing the extent to which the seamount is inflated—a sign that magma has built up below the surface, inflating the above-ground features of the structure.

Axial’s inflation and seismicity are monitored by an NSF-funded network of sensors called the Ocean Observatory Initiative’s Regional Cabled Array (don’t worry, we won’t test you on this). Last year, after a prolonged period of subdued inflation, Axial’s inflation rate increased from a slow rise (from about October 2023) to about twice its rate from January 2024. until last June. Along with the increased rate of inflation (about 9.84 inches or 25 centimeters per year), the seismicity of the submarine volcano increased to hundreds of earthquakes per day. By July, scientists studying data from Axial found that “the next eruption looks like it could happen anytime between NOW and the end of 2025,” according to the blog.

Well, there has been no eruption since then and in October 2024. the team has released another update. “Axial inflation rates have been stable over the past 6 months and seismicity rates have been moderate,” the team wrote. “An eruption doesn’t seem imminent, but it can’t be like that forever.” In other words, there was no change in their prediction, and given that it’s now 2025, the team’s prediction is that an eruption will happen this year.

In their presentation at AGU, the team said that Axial has grown back to more than 95% of its pre-eruption threshold in 2015. – a major indicator that an eruption is just around the corner.

If 2015 eruption whatever the indicator, the predicted eruption could be accompanied by thousands of earthquakes and a sea floor drop of nearly 8 feet (2.4 meters). The sea floor falls because magma is ejected from the swollen volcano into the ocean. Once this is done, the magma begins to slowly fill the mount, starting the whole process over.

Underwater volcanoes can be dangerous; look no further than Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai Eruption which shook the South Pacific in 2022, forcing mass evacuations, blanketing Tonga in ash, and causing several deaths and tens of millions of dollars in damage. Chadwick, the head of the research team, said Scientific news that predicting the potential impacts of an eruption on humanity is difficult, but volcanoes on land are generally more dangerous than seamounts. For reference, 2015 Axial Eruption caused no reported impacts on land.