Goldman Sachs now sees much higher odds of economy shrinking, hiking probability of a U.S. recession to 35%

• Investment Bank Economists Goldman Sachs no longer sees only 20% risk of fallThe probability of warning is now 35%, taking into account such tax impact on real disposable income and consumer spending on higher tariffs and financial markets.

Goldman Sachs warns that the probability of the US economy is growing sharply in the coming months.

The most popular investment bank in the customer research note published on Sundays, expects that the gross domestic product may agree to two direct quarters, which can be arranged from only 20% before.

It accused such an impact on real disposable income and consumer costs, as well as reduced markets, tightening financial conditions and creates an added uncertainty to invest.

“The increase in the likelihood of our recession reflects the baseline of our lower growth, the sharp deterioration of household and business trust in the last month and the statements of the White House officials, which are a greater readiness to pursue their policy.

Goldman’s informed customers, they raised the assumptions of their tariffs for the second time for the second time in more than a month, the dispute of investors underestimated higher imports.

“We note that President Trump recently stated that his planned tariffs are raised to a high level of $ 600 billion to $ 1 trillion next year.”

It evaluates the combined impact on fiscal, immigration and tariff policy changes to about 1.2 percentage points in GDP next year.

This year expects a reduction in 3 interest rates, despite the growth of inflation

As a result, Goldman expects Fed to cut interest rates in each of the three matches, which is scheduled for July, September and November.

The important thing is coming, despite the expectation that the main consumption costs (PCE), the preferred shade of Fed this year will kill about 3.5% this year due to the growth of tariffs than the previous forecast.

Instead, Goldman expects Fed to justify the facilitation policy of facilitation, the key market focus on prices.

The Trump administration cannot be achieved in comments, press times, but Friday told Spokesman Kush DeshaiFortuneTariffs were a strategic instrument needed to restore the heavy industry, decades later, led to the transfer of US factories.

“America cannot be a collection of foreign-made parts. We need to become a production power plant that prevails every step of the industry supply chain, which is critical for our national security and economic interests, “saidA number

“Recession by Design”

Goldman Sachs is not the only one that pays more attention to growth.

Like Mark Zandi hiked his probability Which US economy will reverse? The main economist of Moody’s Analytics used to expect 15% risk, but now he sees it with a 40% probability. At the beginning of this month Zandi claimed that if GDP was offended, it would be “Design decline“, Or put otherwise, self-confident contraction in activities.

Trump has promised Americans a brighter economic prospect, lowering the price of energy, cutting taxes and resolving anti-crisis barriers to bureaucratic red ribbon.

However, there have been suspicion that Trump may try to produce an economic epidemic first, so that 10-year-old profitable bonds come down, some of them have come.Penalty“

With Unusually high $ 6.7 trillion The US debt in the refinanced debt has significant fears, such as investors like the founder of the Macro Fence Fund Bridgewater, that Uncle Sam struggle To find enough demand Accessible rates:A number

In general, 28 trillion dollars in the US national debt are sold among investors, and higher indicators endanger the stability of servicing the burden of interest, now it is greater than the Pentagon’s budget.

Taking into account those concerns, the fears of the Treasury Secretary Scott Besse noted that he was more concerned about himself Currency costs Paid on the long-term US connection than he is with the stock market health.

This story was originally shown Fortune.com