How Trump’s trade war will make your groceries even more expensive

Life nowadays is expensive. The obligatory effects of the pandemic, the invasion of Russia in Ukraine, the higher fuel and energy prices and the extreme meteorological shocks, transferring the supply chain, have been talked about to make many daily needs much less affordable. In particular, increasing food costs have become a source of financial stress for millions of US households. Although overall inflation has cooled from a record peak in 2022, food prices are increasing Almost a quarter in the last four years And they are expected to continue to climb.

So far this year, Americans have encountered a national bird flu epidemic by driven The price of eggs to record levelsWhile rising temperatures and unstable rainfall in West Africa are escalating chocolate prices to new peaksS Years of drought in the US have also contributed to the historically low levels of cattle -stock reserves, Leaving the prices of beefS The result is a leap of supermarket bills, the tougher budgets of households and reducing access to food.

President Donald Trump’s latest commercial decisions are likely to help the situation. Against the backdrop of reports of freezing federal funding, termination of the Government’s Food and Mass Discretion Program, the president re-issues, again aimed at the largest trading partners of the United States. In the scope of one week, he introduced tariffs for a blanket against goods from Mexico, Canada and China, released some products under the United States trade agreement of Mexico-Canada, and then doubled the rates for China before threatening a new set of taxes on Canadian products. On Tuesday, he ordered his administration to double his duties on Canadian import of steel and aluminum, which subsequently returned to 25 percent before these Effect on Wednesday morningprompting immediate revenge fees from Canada and the European Union.

The character similar to Trump’s pendulum, economists told the GRIST, almost certainly means higher prices for grocery stores. There is already frightened financial markets and prompted large retailers as Target CEO Brian Cornell to warn That if some of the promised tariffs come into force, customers can see the shock of fresh products “within days”.

“As for the extreme meteorological shocks that destroy our supply chains, climate change raises prices and creates food inflation,” says Sungi Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University. If politicians do not fully take this into account by correcting trade policies, he said, then to some extent “we will see the complex effects of tariffs and shocks associated with climate change on the supply chain.”

Tariffs or taxes charged on goods imported from other countries are usually tactics of negotiations led by governments in an international trade game, with consumers and manufacturers caught in crossing. When goods enter a country, tariffs are calculated as a percentage of their value and paid by the importer. The importer may then choose to convey the costs of consumers, which in the case of something like Fresh fruits grown in MexicoIt often turns out to be everyday people. Given the degree of dependence of the United States on Canada, Mexico and China for agricultural trade, farmers, analysts, business leaders, politicians and a general public all have raised anxiety Above the effect of tariffs on grocery prices and the ability of commercial wars to slow down economic growth.

During Trump’s first term of office, China’s levies sparked rates that downplayed agricultural exports and the prices of goods, costing more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than more than $ 27 billionwith which the government then had to cover SubsidiesS To date, the United States has not completely recovered its loss in the soybean exports of the exports of soy, its The largest market for agricultural exportsS An Analysis by the National Bureau of Economic ResearchNon -profit organization found that the 2018 trade war in China has largely passed as an increase in US prices, reducing consumers’ income by about $ 1.4 billion a month. Rural agricultural sectors in the Midwest and the Mountain West have been affected strongly than the sail tariffs of China than most others, the analysis found.

This time, it seems that Trump has doubled in tactics, although the demands and messages of his tariff policy remain wildly unpredictable, with economists calling the president and “Chaos agent and confusionS “All said, China, Canada and Mexico delivered approximately 40 percent of the goods US imported last yearS In 2023, only Mexico is the source of about Two third vegetables imported into the US, almost half imports of fruit and nutsand around 90 percent of avocado consumed nationwide.

Without reporting on any repayment tariffs, evaluations suggest that the taxes imposed by Trump last week $ 830 a year and $ 1,072 US household. “I’m a little nervous about the increase in tension,” Lee said. “This can lead to immediate shock in supermarket prices.”

Since then, Canada and China have reacted with their rates. Canada’s rates imposed last week Nearly $ 21 billion In the United States, goods, including orange juice, peanut butter and coffee. China imposed 15 percent of wheat, corn and chicken levied by farmers in the United States, in addition to 10 percent tariffs for products, including soybeans, pork, beef and fruits that came into force on MondayS Mexico, meanwhile, plans to announce retaliatory rates, but Instead, it celebrates Trump’s decision to postponeS On Wednesday, in response to an increase in Trump steel and aluminum rates, Canadian officials announced a Second 20.7 billion dollar wave of liabilities and the European Union said it would begin Retaliation for commercial action next month for a row American industrial and agricultural goods This includes sugar, beef, eggs, poultry, peanut butter and bourbon.

With Trump’s planned tariffs, Americans can expect to see fresh products sent from Mexico – such as tomatoes, strawberries, avocado, linden, mango and papaya, as well as types of tequila and beer – they become more expensive. Other agricultural products derived from Canada, including fertilizers, chocolate, rapeseed oil, maple syrup and pork, are also likely to see an increase in costs. New duties on potash, a key ingredient in fertilizer and steel used in agricultural machines coming from Canada, can also indirect food prices. Many of these products, such as avocado, vegetable oils, cocoa and mango, are already observing increasing price labels partly due to the rise in temperatures.

Although there is currently no lack of issues related to Trump’s tariff policy, James Sayer, an agricultural economist at the University of California, Davis said that even the current uncertainty of international trade will lead to a greater burden on consumers’ food costs.

“All this uncertainty is really bad for the business that hopes to import or establish new supplies for supplies abroad or for any large -scale investment,” Sayer said. “Only this degree of uncertainty will increase prices for consumers and reduce the choice of consumers in the supermarket … even more than the tariffs themselves.”

All the time climate change continues to nourish food inflation, leaving US consumers to take over the warming world and the cascading effects of the administration At first glance created to overcome global trade relationsS

“It is actually a little difficult to predict what we can expect from the current administration when we observe the weight of food inflation through tariffs or trade, and at the same time we have shocks related to the climate along the supply chain,” Lee said. “We hope that we will not see an unexpected complex effect of these two very different animals.”

This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/food-and-agrriculture/what-trumps-scalating-trade-wars-mean-your-eour-gricery-bill/S GRIST is a non -profit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories about climate decisions and a just future. Learn more in Grist.org.