Will Benjamin Netanyahu really end the war in Gaza?

In 16 months, Benjamin Netanyahu refused to say what he envisages for the future of Gaza. It is still close to Israel’s long service leader and crumpled Palestinian enclave.

Netanyahu Next week, US President Donald Trump will meet in the White House, during which the discussion will be presented whether the temporary ceasefire agrees last month and will become a permanent ceasefire.

From the outside, Netanyahu is dedicated to both goals, which he set at the beginning of the war. Extermination Hamas In the Gaza Strip, returning to all hostages confiscated during the October 7, October 7, the Israeli officials said they were killed and killed and caused the conflict.

But it is clearer than ever that these goals are almost incompatible. No earlier, when the battle ended, it began to return to 33 hostages, which would return to the coastal control over the coastal area and organize mass gatherings.

It was a shocking reminder to the Israeli community that Netanyahu often promised a “common victory”, although local officials said that 47,000 Palestine was killed.

The war “did not make Hamas collapse or the release of hostages,” said former Israeli intelligence officer Michael Milztin. There were “tactical achievements, but not a strategic direction.” Hamas still rules, and is still the dominant actor of Gaza. Period. “

International mediators, who are headed by the United States, will start negotiations on the second stage details next week Ceasefire:What is expected to have the liberty of dozens of additional hostages and the warring parties to complete the full stoppage.

Netanyahu has to decide soon, he is ready to see the deal through the end.

On the one hand, he must take into account his best international sponsor, who was strongly armed by the Israeli leader, accepting the initial 42-day ceasefire and returned his main purpose.

On the other hand, Netanyahu must keep the far-right members of his cabinet, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The fire who opposed the ceasefire promised to leave and dismantle the Netanyahu government coalition if Israel did not resume the war and resume the first stage of the deal.

This obvious dilemma has been working with Netanyahu in the past, political strategic Nadav Strauruchler has been described as a “Bibi Sandwich”, citing a veteran.

Stark Contast for Smotrich: “Trump wants to continue the deal. A number of a number is to end gas [war]”- he claims.

And yet, with a trumpet turn, SmotRich and other UV leaders “clear” the recent calls to “clear” Egypt, Jordan and other Muslim states.

“I work with the Prime Minister and the Cabinet to prepare an operating plan and ensure that this vision of President Trump will be carried out,” said Smotrich last week.

Although Netanyahu has not been pulled on the version, he has been widely convicted as a form of ethnic cleansing, which can strictly destabilize the region.

“This is not an idea that just came to Trump,” said the man. “Israel was aware that he was going to say. They [the US and Israel] are aligned and coordinated. “

However, many have commented on the inflammatory interpretations of Trump as a gamite opening in larger negotiations, and not just the future of the Palestinian territory.

As former US President Joe Biden did not secure a secret to the end of the Gaza conflict, the Wilderness of the Palestinian “irreversible” of the Palestinian states the normalization of the Kingdom. to end. Riyadh does not want to agree until the conflict ensures its heritage.

As Trump Ambassador Adam Boler told the 12th Israeli TV channel on Wednesday 12. Trump “is always open to different options,” he said.

The preferred choice of Israel and its American allies, however, is likely that Hamas, as part of the negotiations of the second round, willingly agrees to put its own hands and head.

Netanyahu said that the person familiar with the Government of Israel thinks. “It simply came to our notice then [in Gaza]And he supports it. “

However, it is more likely that various schemes floating by the United States, such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, to create the Polish government to recreate civic oversight.

The government of Netanyahu is still a war that is rejected by the PA, which exerted great autonomy on the occupied West Bank and was evicted in 2007 by Hamas to be expelled from Gaza.

AVI Issakharop, Israeli analyst and co-author FAUDA The TV series states that including the PA is the only realistic version of the “alternative regime” in Gaza.

“Trump must now submit the second stage of the Gaza and Hamas make up for the entrance of the PA,” he said. “They must force Hamas to understand that they cannot remain in power.”

Other analysts argue the high price of the reconstruction of Gaza, which is estimated at tens of billion dollars, will limit Hamas bargaining.

But former Israeli intelligence analyst Milshetin claimed that such a plan is “naive” and is obliged to fail. He said that the Enfeled PA, who heads Oktogen President Mahmoud Abbas, will serve as a purely fig tree, which will allow Hamas to remain de facto military force on the ground.

Instead, Milshetin claims for the third path. Implement the entire Gaza Ceasefire Treaty, return all Israelis to captivity and yield to the future for a visible future.

“We cannot live in Gaza with Hamas, but it will require a great campaign where we have to take Gaza, stay there for a long time and dismantle the rule of Hamas,” Milzhtin said. “This needs serious planning, as well as internal and international support. It will take years. “

After all, Netanyahu also did not rule out the possibility of returning to war, “in new ways and great force,” as he said last month, if he refrained talks with Hamas.

Two people familiar with the question said that Trump and Biden had given written guarantees that they would support the fight if Hamas violated the ceasefire.

Shortly, it remains unknown whether it will include negotiations on the second stage of the transaction.

But for now, Netanyahu has a few weeks to make a decision. This is a long time in this war, “said the political strategy, Strauruchler. “Bibi is not a gambler. He will take what he thinks [contrasting] Options to the last minute, and even beyond, and then choose. “

Cartography by: Adit Banicar