Russia accused of shooting down Azerbaijan passenger plane

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US and regional officials say Russian anti-aircraft fire may have caused a plane crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day.

An Azerbaijan Airlines flight was traveling from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Chechnya, in southern Russia, when it veered off course and made an emergency landing in Kazakhstan, killing all 29 passengers.

Most of those on the plane, Embraer 190, were citizens of Azerbaijan. There were also 16 Russians and several citizens of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on the plane.

Russia said in initial official reports on Wednesday that heavy fog forced the plane to divert from a scheduled landing in Grozny and attempt to land in Kazakhstan, where it crashed, possibly after hitting a flock of birds. On the same day, the President of Azerbaijan said that he was informed that the plane was diverted due to bad weather conditions.

But that was questioned by US, regional and Ukrainian experts and officials, who cited the fact that Russian air defenses were operating over Grozny at the time in response to a Ukrainian drone strike , that there was debris damage to the interior and tail of the crashed aircraft.

A U.S. official said there were initial indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system might have shot down the plane.

Andriy Kovalenko, an official of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, wrote in Telegram. “Russia should have closed the airspace of Grozny, but it didn’t. . The plane was shot down by the Russians and sent to Kazakhstan instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny and saving lives.”

Senior Ukrainian officials confirmed to the Financial Times that Kiev believes the plane was likely shot down by Russian air defense systems.

Osprey, the aviation security agency, said: “Video from the debris and airspace security environment in southwestern Russia indicates that the plane was hit by some type of anti-aircraft fire.”

A senior official in the Caucasus region said evidence showed the plane was shot down by air defenses in the Grozny region.

“If [Russian authorities are] is going to use jamming systems and anti-aircraft systems, they should have closed the airspace,” the official told the FT. “The most common explanation for why they didn’t do it is incompetence.”

If the investigation, led by Kazakh officials, reveals that the plane was shot down by air defense systems, the incident will resemble the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 in 2014, which killed 298 people controlled by proxy militias in eastern Ukraine, the investigation is over.

Data from the Flightradar24 tracking service shows that the Azerbaijani plane stopped continuously recording its position upon reaching the North Caucasus, which suggests that the GPS is jammed.

However, Flightradar24 has found that there is some identifying information that shows the plane reached Grozny before diverting to Kazakhstan.

Pictures from the crash site show that most of the front of the plane is half destroyed, but most of the tail remains intact, with impact marks and small punctures that could be consistent with a surface-to-air missile, according to military experts. defense system attack.

“The holes in the fuselage are very similar to the impact of the type of projectiles that air-to-air missiles tend to be equipped with; [with]as well as by air defense systems launched by air defense systems such as the Pantsir-S1,” said Ruslan Leviev, a military analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team, an open-source investigative group.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that it is premature to make assumptions about the causes of the accident. Kazakh authorities said it was “unethical” to blame the rocket attack before the investigation was completed.

A spokesman for the National Security Council said the US had seen the reports but referred reporters to officials in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan as the investigation continued.

In a statement, plane maker Embraer said it was “deeply saddened by what happened”.

“Our thoughts and heartfelt condolences go out to the families, friends, colleagues and loved ones affected by this incident. We are closely monitoring the situation and remain fully committed to assisting the relevant authorities,” the company said.

Cartography by Stephen Bernard