China holds cards in US tariff stand-off

The United States and China are closed to a dangerous trade location, trading with Tit-for-Tat with two world’s largest economies, as Donald Trump demands that Donald Trump demands a transaction from his department.

China rely on the United States as an almost irreplaceable market for its production, but experts warn that Washington should not underestimate the capacity of Beijing to resist Trump’s coercion.

Centralized political control, more and more diversified export markets, including its virtual drowning, including rare earth metals, including Siman’s many negotiation powers. The question is how much it can use its levers without harming it.

Commercial power

Last year, China had a surplus of almost $ 300 billion with the United States, about 15 percent of its total exports to the United States. Trump Tariffs: 145% will cause significant pain on Beijing.

But international economists said that this looks at one important fact. China can import its imports more easily than the other way around the environment.

US products exports to China are heavily focused on agriculture such as soy, cotton, beef and poultry, and so low cost. Many US imports from China: electronics, machines, and some processed minerals are the opposite.

Marta Bengoyan, Professor of International Economics of the New York City University, said that before the United States and China, it was very important in trade, this meant that the final balance of risk was on the US side.

“US dependence is higher than China, as China can leave the agricultural products more easily than the United States can replace electronics and cars,” he said. “Beijing is already buying a Brazilian soyaya, for example, in the end, China has a little more lever.”

Is devalue the dollar He also made it more expensive for the United States to import goods.

The pain of a trade war will still feel in China, which imports a higher level of the United States, including planes, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, although Washington sought to limit the entry of chips in recent years. Many American businesses have been built in land supply networks.

Goldman Sachs analysts assessed that 10 million 20 million employees in China could export US borders. “The combination of extreme high tariffs in the United States is sharply decreasing to the United States and its slow export and world economy, will put significant pressure on China’s economy and the labor market,” they wrote last week.

Strategic “back”

Since Washington has set sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines in 2018 and 2019 China tried to reduce its consumers to release its consumers. According to the US government, its share of imports to the United States decreased from 21 to 13.4 percent compared to the previous year.

At the same time, China’s production capabilities have been higher than in Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Cambodia, where Chinese producers took out cheaper labor and reduced the influence of US tariffs. Martin Vietnam exports increased by 17%, Data issued this week showed.

The more crucial Trump should be closed to see the “back door” for the Chinese export. Vietnam that There is now 124 billion dollars to trade surplus The United States threatened to “mutual” 46% tariff, although it has been suspended for 90 days.

The Armenian Investment Bank’s Chief Economist Alicia-Pacific’s Chief Economist Alicia Garco Herro and Braegel’s Mind’s Mind’s Mind’s Meanwhile said that the break provided a certain respiratory area. “In fact, it gives both sides a 90 day to find out the things.”

But even if there was a severe cessation of Chinese exports, Garcia Herro said that the impact would not be catastrophic to China’s spread economy. The country’s GDP grew by 5% last year, as a result of which the 1.5 percentage point of it stems Near-$ 1TN World Trade ExcessA number

“China is a humus economy that is flexible,” he said.

But analysts have also warned that Chinese attempts to redirect to unnecessary capabilities in alternative markets, including EU, India and countries around the global san.

“Because of the excess of goods, China is going to unload the unloading, I expected other countries to respond to a potential flood,” said the senior professor of the business school of Singapore National University.

Financial reserves

China enjoys future levers A large pile of debt from US government It has accumulated that could sell theoretical to reduce its influence. This, in turn, can cause concern about the assets of the US assets and the value of the value of the US government’s debt.

Zenger, Zeng, ASIA Credit Strategy Loans said that the sale of treasures will also hit China, taking into account its holding.

“Thus, we expect China to continue to diversify its US Dollar Religion Resources for other currencies as a goal of long-term placement,” he said.

Critical minerals

The United States also relies on China for very rare earthquakes that are needed for modern production, such as electric vehicle batteries. Beijing controls more than two-thirds of the production of global rare countries and more than 90 percent of the processing capacity – a critical leverage.

Trump excludes critical minerals from his first round of “mutual” tariffs with the US vulnerability. But such a refusal can be enough for China to engraved from the supply crisis.

Shirt Export control has been installed Last week, more rarely on earthly elements, including Disposion and Tribulation, which are the main ingredients in products such as reactive engines and EVS.

Autonomy over democracy

While the ruling Communist Party of China is not inviolable, it is less reactive to pressure than the White House for the threat to bonds and exchange.

The New York Conference Council “Montukfar” Alfredo Montuphar-Huel noted that Beijing, despite its own challenges, causes greater ability to slow down its economy.

It also has more leverage to manipulate its domestic market, which Chinese authorities view as social stability and economic mood indicator. In recent weeks, Beijing intervened in the market “National Collective” of state institutions Driving coordinated operations to support the prices of a share.

But the Chinese government is also very sensitive to the demonstration of public discontent. At the end of 2022, it raised its three-year-olds on the restrictions after protests in large cities.

“Just from the market response, I would say the US at the moment [is hurting more]”He added Julian Evans-Pritar, the main China economist of the capital’s economics.” The United States is under greater pressure to try to come to the table and negotiate. “

But the first shocks of a commercial war such as ports delayed from the huge ports of China Still in open dissatisfaction In the southern Chinese regions.

“I did not meet one person, even the manufacturers were directly affected by the tariff,” said one foreign producer in Guangdong. “The mood I’ve seen a kind of defenselessA number I think the government is playing, it is now about national pride. “

Additional reports of Chan Ho in Hong Kong; Imagination of Alan Smith data in London