2025 will test the ageing warhorses of the Middle East

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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

The writer is a former head of MI6 and UK ambassador to the UN

We often think Middle East as it is structured in the Arab world.The historical centers of power were Baghdad and Damascus. In the 20th century, Cairo and Beirut became the cultural capitals of the region until they declined and their influence was absorbed by the oil and gas wealth of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

Astoundingly, the three most powerful countries in the region, Israel, Turkey, and Iran, are each led by an aging warhorse. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power in Turkey for almost 22 years, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been the supreme leader of Iran for 35 years. Like the Bourbons of France 200 years ago, they learn nothing and forget nothing.

After the humiliating disaster of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel’s armed forces and intelligence services turned not only on Hamas, but also on Hezbollah and their sponsors in Iran. In the process, Netanyahu ignored the advice of Israel’s closest friends and has shown low regard for protecting civilian life.Long-term support for Israel has eroded in the West, but its main enemies have seriously have weakened.

Israel has shown itself to be the new Sparta, a small nation with unrivaled military power, but its politicians reject the idea that a political settlement with the Palestinians is necessary if the Jewish nation is to enjoy lasting peace and security for Gaza has no plan beyond indefinite occupation, unless it is undeclared, to drive the Palestinians there into Egypt and, in parallel, as much of the confiscated West Bank as possible One prediction we can make with confidence, unfortunately, is that an independent Palestinian state will be no closer in a year than it is now.

As the new year begins, Israel’s focus is on Iran, the big loser of 2024. Khamenei is clearly weakening both physically and politically. The main candidate to succeed him is now his son, Mojtaba. Second generation autocrats come to power as a result of privilege and entitlement. They don’t bear the scars of struggle and learn the hard lessons of their fathers. Hafez al-Assad was the ruthless leader of Syria, but he knew the limits of power and when to negotiate. he had none of those skills. The result was even more brutality and, over time, the collapse of the regime.

The attempt to lose their Syrian ally should make the Iranian military wary of dynastic legacies, which will try to ensure that the new supreme leader is not all-powerful within the regime. But the new leaders of a stagnant autocracy can spring a surprise: Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev are obvious examples. For Iran, Saudi Arabia’s transformation under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is closer.Each recognized his country’s vulnerability and sought economic and political a strategy that usually involves some openness to the outside world underpinning an autocratic system for decades to come.This seems unlikely in Iran, but should not be ruled out.

A weakened regime offers an opportunity for new talks, even if Khamenei’s leadership continues for another year or two. Donald Trump may prefer a political deal to Netanyahu’s preferred military option of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel will insist that Tehran negotiate. while they are secretly making progress toward nuclear weapons, which is now a more compelling case for Iran.These are valid concerns for Khamenei distrust of America than US politicians, it may require new leadership in Tehran before Iran changes course.

The very welcome surprise of 2024 was the collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a path to a better future for the Syrian people. Turkey, like Israel, was a winner last year, but it also has problems seizing new opportunities. Erdogan appears to be viewing Syria through a distorted prism of the Kurdish issue, which will make it difficult to unite Syrian opposition leaders and create a new constitution that recognizes their country’s religious diversity. and ethnic.

Erdogan, a remarkable survivor, has developed Turkey’s power in the region and in Africa. He has shown that the philosophy of political Islam can be successful and does not have to lead to an Islamic state and strict Sharia law.

There is a lesson here for the Western capitals, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. We are right to be wary of the extremist origins of Al-Sharaa. being bold in lifting sanctions, lifting the ban on terrorists, and doing everything possible to support the Syrian opposition in coming together.

The instinct of Western capitals seems to be to pay back and resist the Islamists on ideological grounds. But that is a path that will make it more likely that we will end up with either fragmentation, as in Libya, or a new dictator, as in Tunisia. The West must also avoid the mistakes of the Bourbons .