US unicorns will most likely go public in 2025. | NVCA/PitchBook

There is a raft of American Unicorns — those valued at $1 billion or more — that are likely to go public in 2025, according to PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor for the fourth quarter of 2024

The folks at PitchBook have the VC Exit Predictor, a tool that uses machine learning and PitchBook’s database of companies, funding rounds and investors to objectively assess the likelihood of a startup having a successful exit.

On the PitchBook platform, VC-backed companies are rated by a percentage of their likelihood of being acquired, going public, not exiting due to failure, or becoming self-sustaining. To present a clearer picture of the true value of a VC exit, the researchers added a proprietary extrapolation methodology that is currently used for undisclosed M&A transactions in our PE and global M&A reports.

Nizar Tarhuni, executive vice president of research and market intelligence at PitchBook, said in a statement: “While in 2024 saw steady growth in completed financings and total dollars invested – the proliferation of early-stage AI-focused transactions at strong valuations masks the broader venture industry still faces corrective challenges.”

He said the VC scene ultimately lacks meaningful exits, driven by a host of issues, including buyer-seller valuation mismatches stemming from inflated rounds in previous vintages and regulatory headwinds hampering deal appetite for the most part from the market.

“Our vision for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. A more M&A-friendly and business presence in Washington, combined with more time for startups and investors to readjust expectations around valuations, deal structures and growth, could help bring more capital off the sidelines.” Tarhuni said. “However, fundraising may remain tepid, especially as other pockets of the market appear to be gaining momentum competing for dollars in alternative allocator buckets, ultimately favoring larger venture platforms and established managers.”

And Bobby Franklin, CEO of the NVCA, said in a statement that after a strong quarter with the highest levels of investment since mid-2022. there is a sense of cautious optimism for venture capitalists and entrepreneurs heading into 2025.

“FTC and DOJ guidance changes could ease some liquidity challenges for portfolio companies, and SEC changes could adjust regulatory burdens at firms,” ​​he said. “With more venture capitalists entering government roles and actively engaging on Capitol Hill, the venture industry has a unique opportunity to highlight the critical role of venture-backed companies in driving economic growth and maintaining American competitiveness.”

He said the tax bill currently moving through Congress is particularly important, with the potential to spur innovation, restore the research and development tax credit and support the broader ecosystem.

Among US tech unicorns ranked by IPO likelihood, PitchBook predicts that Anduril, an aerospace and defense firm founded by Oculus founder Palmer Luckey, has a 97% chance of going public in 2025.

Another with roots in gaming is Mythical Games, a Web3 game company led by John Linden. The company has a 97% chance of going public in 2025.

Others include Ayar Labs, Carbon, Databricks, EquipmentShare, Form Energy, GrubMarket, Mainspring, Sila and StockX. Those with a 96% chance of going public are Impossible Foods, Groq and SpaceX.

In 2024 the largest deal size category raised $1 million to $5 million, with 3,153 startups in that category. That’s down from 3,781 in 2023. and 5,310 in peak year 2021.

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