Remember that metal ring that fell from the sky? We still don’t know where it came from

It’s been two weeks since a massive metal ring crashed into a village in Kenya, but authorities still can’t determine where it came from. The fallen object raises concerns about how difficult it is to trace space debris and hold those responsible accountable.

The Kenya Space Agency (KSA) is still investigating the origin of a a mysterious object fell from the sky at Mukuku Village in Makueni District in the early hours of Monday, December 30, 2024. To date, however, the origin of the oval-shaped fragment remains a mystery. Although the ring was originally thought to be ejected space debris, there is little evidence linking it to a specific rocket or satellite.

The metal ring is approximately 8 feet (2.5 meters) wide and weighs about 1,100 pounds (500 kilograms). An early assessment suggested the object was a separation ring – a component used to attach payloads to rockets during launch, ensuring they are placed in orbit before the ring falls back to Earth. Separation rings are typically designed to burn up on re-entry through the Earth’s atmosphere or break up into smaller fragments that fall into uninhabited areas of the ocean.

In a statement published on X, Kenya’s space agency denied rumors that the Indian Space Research Organization was responsible for the site, rejecting claims that there would be compensation to the villagers. “The Kenya Space Agency and relevant authorities are looking into the matter to ensure a thorough and accurate assessment. We advise the public to remain cautious about such reports and wait for official findings,” KSA wrote to X.

Another culprit was later namedobject 33155 (2008-034C), Ariane SYLDA adapter from flight V184. SYLDA is a hollow shell placed over one payload so that another payload can be placed on top, and this particular payload was launched on July 7, 2008. After launch, SYLDA was left in geostationary transfer orbit and reportedly re-entered on Dec. 30 (the same day as the ring incident), according to the Space Force’s Orbital Tracking Unit.

Again, this is just speculation. “The ability of space forces to track objects at such low inclinations is poor once the objects reach a low-altitude orbit, which explains the lack of tracking over the past week,” Harvard-Smithsonian astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, an expert on space tracking, wrote in a blog post. “That means we can’t really be confident when and where it re-entered, especially if the Space Force estimate is really just an extrapolation of data from the previous week.”

The lack of evidence led McDowell to question whether this object had fallen from space at all. “The ring was thought to be space debris, but the evidence is slim,” he added. “I’m not entirely convinced the ring is space debris at all.”

Marco Langbroek, a professor of astrodynamics at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, agrees that the metal ring probably did not come from the SYLDA adapter on an Ariane rocket. However, he points to other evidence that suggests these are space debris. “In addition to the metal ring in the photos, other fragments that appear to be consistent with space debris, such as what appears to be a carbon sheath and an insulating film, were found several kilometers from it,” Langbroek wrote in a blog.

The ongoing mystery of where the metal ring came from highlights the growing risk of falling space debris, whose origins can sometimes be difficult to trace. In March 2023 a two-pound cylinder-shaped object crashed through the roof of a house in Florida. The object was later identified as a fallen piece from a massive pallet of old batteries which NASA had ejected from the International Space Station in March 2021, sending it flying through Earth’s atmosphere. The family whose home was affected is suing NASA for property damage. However, if the space debris goes unclaimed, there will likely be no consequences for the damage caused.

On average, 200 to 400 man-made objects re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere each year, so the chances of space junk reaching habitable areas are small, but still not zero. The rules that govern this type of incident are not exactly solid. The 1972 Liability Convention states that the launching party must pay compensation for all damage caused by its space object, whether in orbit or on Earth. However, the Convention states that a company or institution is only liable for its space debris if it has been negligent in some way, but fails to define what would constitute negligence in this case.

Things get even less clear when it comes to unclaimed pieces of debris, as evidenced by the mysterious ring that fell in Kenya.