Moderna cuts sales forecast for 2025 by $1 billion

Modern On Monday, the biotech company cut its sales guidance for 2025 by about $1 billion due to several potential headwinds later this year as it continues to cut costs and expand its portfolio.

Moderna now expects revenue of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in 2025, most of which will come in the second half of the year. Most of those sales will come from Moderna’s Covid shot and newly launched vaccine virus in the respiratory tract and noseaccording to a release.

Leadership is lower than before forecast In September, it was issued in the range of 2.5 billion dollars to 3.5 billion dollars. At the time, the company said it expected to break even on the basis of the operating cash register In 2028 – pulled back from 2026 – with $6 billion in revenue.

Moderna shares fell 18% in premarket trading on Monday. Other vaccine stocks also declined, with Novavax down 6% before the market opened, BioNTech down 3% and Pfizer partially off.

“There are a number of uncertainties as we plan as we head into 2025,” Moderna CFO Jamey Mock told CNBC. “In the meantime, we plan for them to be tailwinds. They could be tailwinds, but right now we’re seeing them as headwinds.”

Mock pointed to four factors that could affect sales, including increased competition in the Covid market. Moderna’s share of the US retail market for Covid shots has fallen from 48% in 2023 to 40% at the end of 2024, he said, and the company is poised for another decline this year.

noted Sanofi will co-commercialize Novavax‘s Covid vaccine could make that shot more competitive under a new worldwide deal.

A second factor, Mock suggests, is a drop in vaccination rates, which fell by about 7% overall in the US retail market in the fall of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Two final factors are timing and uncertainty around production contracts with multiple countries. What the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisors will recommend for RSV revaccination.

But Mock noted that the company plans to cut cash spending by $1 billion in 2025 and an additional $500 million in 2026.

“We are incurring the necessary costs to protect our cash,” Mok said. “We are excited to invest and diversify our portfolio.”

The announcement comes as Moderna points the way forward after a sharp decline in demand for its only commercially available Covid vaccine until the RSV injection hit the market last year. It also comes ahead of Moderna’s annual launch event JPMorgan Healthcare Conferenceone of the largest gatherings of healthcare executives in the world and a hot spot for deals for the industry.

Revenue from Moderna’s two acquisitions met its forecast for 2024, coming in at about $3 billion to $3.1 billion. In November, the company announced an updated Covid hit benefited Three weeks earlier than the previous iteration of the 2023 shoot in the US, it won approval.

Still, these sales represent a sharp decline in price 6.7 billion dollars Moderna’s Covid shot was ordered in 2023 and $18 billion in 2022 because fewer people are rolling up their sleeves for updated jabs.

Moderna plans to expand its portfolio with 10 new product approvals over the next three years, including a combination shot targeting Covid and influenza and a “next-generation” Covid shot. On Monday, the company said it could see three approvals in 2025 alone.

The company is betting on a pipeline built around its messenger RNA platform, the technology used in the Covid vaccine and RSV shot.